FICC日报：做好端午假期期间风险管理-20250530

Report Industry Investment Rating - Commodities and stock index futures: Neutral overall, waiting for fundamental verification; Gold: Buy on dips [3] Core Viewpoints - Focus on economic fact verification. In April, domestic data was mixed. Exports were slightly better than expected, but investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector. Fiscal revenue and expenditure both rebounded, and consumption was slightly under pressure. There is a possibility of further fiscal stimulus. The central bank will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on May 23. The Sino-US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, and the yuan is expected to be more stable in the future. Before July, the macro situation is expected to revolve around economic fact verification, especially the potential "rush to export" after the tariff talks [1]. - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt expectation continues to rise. The Fed may adjust the interest rate framework, and the first interest rate cut this year is postponed to September. The US Treasury will reduce the issuance of short-term bonds. There are ongoing trade negotiations between the US and other countries. Regarding commodities, be cautious of the emotional impact on industrial products from the US stock adjustment, and the price of agricultural products may rise due to tariffs. The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas, and OPEC+ may increase production [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In April, domestic exports were slightly better than expected, but investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector. Fiscal revenue and expenditure both rebounded, and consumption was slightly under pressure. There is a possibility of further fiscal stimulus. The central bank will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on May 23. The Sino-US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, and the yuan is expected to be more stable in the future. Before July, the macro situation is expected to revolve around economic fact verification, especially the potential "rush to export" after the tariff talks [1]. US Market - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt expectation continues to rise. The Fed may adjust the interest rate framework, and the first interest rate cut this year is postponed to September. The US Treasury will reduce the issuance of short-term bonds. There are ongoing trade negotiations between the US and other countries [2]. Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, the impact of tariff increases shows a pattern of first trading the decline in demand and then trading the rise in inflation. Be cautious of the emotional impact on industrial products such as black and non-ferrous metals from the US stock adjustment. The demand for agricultural products is relatively stable, and the probability of price increases due to tariffs is higher. The price of crude oil has declined, and OPEC+ will increase production in June and may further increase production in July. The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas [2]. Strategy - Commodities and stock index futures: Neutral overall, waiting for fundamental verification; Gold: Buy on dips [3] To - Do News - The Fed meeting minutes show increased uncertainty about the economic outlook, and a cautious monetary policy is appropriate. There are ongoing trade negotiations between the US and India, the US and the UK. The US government restricts the sale of semiconductor software services to China. The US International Trade Court's ruling on tariffs has been appealed. Japan will issue 800 billion yen in 30 - year government bonds. OPEC+ will discuss production increases in July [2][5][6]