FICC日报：海外宏观环境改善，股指反弹-20250530

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The adjustment expectation of the US tariff policy boosts market sentiment and drives the synchronous rebound of domestic and overseas stock indices. Although the US economic growth rate in Q1 is higher than the initial value, the overall situation is still in a contraction state, limiting the rebound of US stocks. The overseas macro - environment shows marginal improvement, and capital sentiment is repaired. However, there is still great uncertainty in the potential policy direction of the Trump administration. It is recommended to maintain an interval operation strategy in the short term [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Domestic Situation: The Ministry of Commerce responded to the new trends in China - US economic and trade consultations. Since the Geneva economic and trade talks, both sides have maintained communication at multiple levels. China has repeatedly negotiated with the US regarding its abuse of export control measures in the semiconductor field. China will closely monitor the EU's subsequent actions on the anti - dumping investigation against Chinese tire products and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [1] - Overseas Situation: The US Q1 GDP revised value shrank by 0.2% annually, slightly higher than the initial value of 0.3%. Consumption expenditure growth slowed down significantly, reaching the weakest growth in nearly two years. Corporate profits plunged 2.9%, the largest decline since 2020. The core PCE was slightly adjusted down to 3.4% [1] 2. Stock Index Rebound - Spot Market: A - share indices opened higher and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.7% to 3363.45 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.37%. Most sector indices increased, with the computer, pharmaceutical, electronics, and national defense and military industries leading the gains. Only the beauty care, banking, food and beverage, and petroleum and petrochemical industries declined. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1.2 trillion yuan. In overseas markets, the US Federal Appellate Court suspended a ruling blocking Trump's global tariff collection, and is considering whether to extend the suspension period. The US three major stock indices all rose slightly, with the Nasdaq rising 0.39% to 19175.87 points [2] - Futures Market: The basis of stock index futures rebounded, especially for IC and IM. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously [2] 3. Strategy - The adjustment expectation of the US tariff policy boosts market sentiment, driving the synchronous rebound of domestic and overseas stock indices. Although the US economic growth rate in Q1 is higher than the initial value, the overall contraction limits the rebound of US stocks. With marginal improvement in the overseas macro - environment and repaired capital sentiment, considering the uncertainty of the Trump administration's policy, it is recommended to maintain an interval operation strategy in the short term [3] 4. Macro - economic Charts - Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][7][9] 5. Spot Market Tracking Charts - Stock Index Performance: On May 29, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70% to 3363.45, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.24% to 10127.20, the ChiNext Index rose 1.37% to 2012.55, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.59% to 3858.70, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.08% to 2690.89, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.47% to 5719.91, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.76% to 6089.58 [12] - Also include charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and margin trading balance [13] 6. Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. For example, the trading volume of IF increased by 36676 to 102154, and the open interest increased by 15516 to 247352 [14][15] - Basis: The basis of stock index futures rebounded. For instance, the basis of the current - month IF contract increased by 5.34 to - 25.90 [32] - Inter - period Spread: There are data on inter - period spreads such as the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts, the next - season and current - month contracts, etc., with corresponding changes in values [39][40][44]