东海证券晨会纪要-20250530

Key Recommendations - The chemical supply-side reform is gaining momentum, with certain sectors showing more potential for growth. The report identifies ten sectors with significant reductions in capacity investment, including organic silicon, rubber products, and fluorine chemicals. Additionally, sectors like compound fertilizers and fluorine chemicals are expected to see better recovery in profitability and cash flow [5][6][7]. Industry Analysis - The overall capacity investment in the basic chemical industry has continued to decrease, indicating that the industry is at a turning point. The ratio of capital expenditure to depreciation and amortization has dropped from 2.26 to 1.64, while cash flow has shown signs of improvement. This situation is reminiscent of the supply-side reforms initiated in 2014-2015, suggesting that current policies may also drive a recovery in the chemical sector [6][7]. Specific Company Insights - Japan's Mitsui Chemicals announced its exit from the nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) business, which is expected to enhance China's competitiveness in electronic specialty gases. The global market for electronic specialty gases is projected to reach $6.023 billion by 2025, with China's market expected to be around 20 billion yuan in 2024 [10][12][14]. Market Trends - The report highlights that China's production capacity for nitrogen trifluoride has been increasing, with a production capacity of 25,000 tons per year and an output of approximately 24,000 tons in 2023. The export volume of nitrogen trifluoride has significantly surpassed imports, indicating a growing domestic capability [13][14]. Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on specific sectors and companies that may benefit from supply-side reforms. Key sectors include organic silicon, membrane materials, and dyeing agents, with recommended companies such as Hoshine Silicon Industry and Zhejiang Longsheng. Additionally, companies in the electronic specialty gas sector, such as Nanda Special Gas and China Shipbuilding Special Gas, are highlighted for their potential growth [7][14].