推动欧洲发展：本土、防御性且不断增长；公用事业的新时代

Investment Rating - The report rates the Utilities sector as "Buy" with a forecasted average EPS CAGR of +9% over 2024-2029 for the identified 'Electrification Compounders' [7]. Core Insights - The Utilities sector is expected to experience a new era characterized by low-risk, mid-to-high single-digit EPS growth and attractive capital distribution, driven by an inflection in power demand, a pivot in capital allocation, and the need to modernize the power system [1][7]. - European power demand has shifted from a 15-year decline to a projected annual growth of 1%-2%, supported by economic growth, electrification, and datacenters, with expectations for further increases later in the decade [2][15]. - A significant investment of approximately €2 trillion is required over the next ten years to modernize the European power system, addressing the aging infrastructure and rising demand [21][94]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary - Utilities are predominantly domestic and defensive, with a large share of regulated profits, positioning them well for organic growth due to the inflection in power demand and modernization needs [7]. - The report highlights key stocks such as Enel and SSE, which are expected to benefit from rising power demand and positive earnings revisions [7]. Power Demand - After 15 years of decline, European power demand is expected to grow by 1%-2% annually, with Germany projected to outpace the rest of Europe due to infrastructure investments and electrification [15][65]. - The report notes that power demand in Europe is currently about 10% below 2008 levels, but recent trends indicate a positive shift in consumption [46][49]. Capital Allocation - Over the past three years, capital allocation in the Utilities sector has shifted from top-line growth to maximizing returns, with a focus on modernizing power grids, which is expected to yield double-digit earnings growth [3][69]. - The report emphasizes that capital distribution has become more central, with Utilities increasing dividends and share buybacks [3][69]. Earnings Growth - The modernization of power grids and the focus on maximizing returns are expected to support mid-to-high single-digit EPS growth until the mid-2030s, leading to multiple expansions compared to historical valuations [4][24]. - The Utilities sector is anticipated to gradually re-rate towards the valuation levels of US Utilities, driven by rising power demand and investment needs [24][27]. Investment Needs - The report estimates that the European power system requires around €2 trillion in investments over the next decade, with a significant portion directed towards modernizing transmission and distribution grids [21][94]. - The aging infrastructure, with European grids being 45-50 years old, necessitates urgent upgrades to improve resilience and meet rising demand [21][97].