贵金属日评：联邦上诉法院暂停执行停征关税，日本前官员暗示已暂停抛售美债-20250530

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to concerns about inflation risks, Fed officials are cautious about rate cuts, and there may be a liquidity shock when US Treasuries mature in June - July. However, continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries and persistent geopolitical risks may cause precious metal prices to be weak first and then strong. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on pullbacks [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - Gold: On May 29, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 772.28 yuan/gram, down 7.96 yuan from the previous day and 15.78 yuan from last week. The trading volume was 210,848, a decrease of 79,564 from the previous day. The position of the active futures contract was 195,076, a decrease of 25,436 from the previous day. The inventory was 17,247 kilograms, unchanged from the previous day. The closing price of spot Shanghai gold T+D was 762.49 yuan/gram, down 13.23 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 45,904, a decrease of 2,192 from the previous day. The position was 216,784, an increase of 1,732 from the previous day. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was 0.18, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 1.83 [1]. - Silver: The closing price of Shanghai silver futures on May 29, 2025, was 8,224 yuan/kilogram, down 1 yuan from the previous day and 39 yuan from last week. The trading volume was 659,531, an increase of 23,931 from the previous day. The position of the active futures contract was 345,595, a decrease of 4,681 from the previous day. The inventory was 10,359,190 grams. The closing price of spot Shanghai silver T+D was 8,202 yuan/kilogram, down 42 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was - 54,128, and the position was 3,389,800, an increase of 26,074 from the previous day. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 14, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 22 [1]. - International Gold: The closing price of COMEX gold futures on May 29, 2025, was 3,312.40 US dollars/ounce, up 11.55 US dollars from the previous day and 50.85 US dollars from last week. The trading volume was 225,050, an increase of 3,574 from the previous day. The position was 236,717, an increase of 129,959 from the previous day. The inventory was 38,984,927 troy ounces. The price of London gold spot was 3,312.40 US dollars/ounce, up 11.55 US dollars from the previous day. The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF were 925.61 tons, an increase of 4.59 tons from the previous day. The holdings of iShare Gold ETF were 431.81 tons, a decrease of 2.93 tons from the previous day [1]. - International Silver: The closing price of COMEX silver futures on May 29, 2025, was 33.44 US dollars/ounce, up 0.34 US dollars from the previous day and 0.18 US dollars from last week. The trading volume was 49,553, an increase of 8,975 from the previous day. The position was 5,523, an increase of 104,823 from the previous day. The inventory was 498,127,853.72 troy ounces. The price of London silver spot was 33.37 US dollars/ounce, up 0.09 US dollars from the previous day [1]. Important Information - US: The US Federal Appellate Court approved the Trump administration's request to temporarily suspend the ruling of a lower - court that prohibited the implementation of several US government tariff executive orders. Trump met with Powell for the first time since 2019, asking for a rate cut, while Powell insisted on policy independence. The scale of US Treasuries maturing in June - July, mainly short - term, is 1.2 trillion and 1.46 trillion US dollars respectively. The concentrated maturity and re - issuance of US Treasuries may cause a liquidity shock. The US SPCI manufacturing and service industry FINI in June were all 52.3, higher than expected and the previous value. The addition of tariffs has raised concerns about a rebound in consumer inflation, delaying the Fed's rate - cut expectation to September/December [1]. - Europe: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, lowering the deposit mechanism rate to 2.25%. The manufacturing PMIs of the eurozone, Germany, and France in May were 49.4/48.8/49.5, all higher than expected and the previous value. The annual rate of the eurozone consumer price index CPI in May was 2.2%, higher than expected but flat with the previous value. European Central Bank economists predict that the neutral interest rate is 1.75 - 2.25%, so the European Central Bank may cut interest rates in June and cut rates about twice more before the end of 2025 [1]. - UK: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in June, continuing to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of UK government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The UK SBCI manufacturing (service) industry PRIT in May was 45.1 (50.2), lower (higher) than expected and the previous value. However, since the annual rates of the consumer price index CPI (core CPI) in April were 3.5% (3.8%), higher than expected and the previous value, the market expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates only once before the end of 2025 [1]. - Japan: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.5%, and has been reducing the quarterly bond - buying scale by 400 billion yen since August 2024. The annual rates of the consumer price index CPI in Japan (Tokyo) in April were 3.6% (3.5%), in line with (higher than) expectations and the previous value. The largest Japanese labor union Rengo achieved an average salary increase of 6.46%. Some Bank of Japan officials hope to raise interest rates to 1% in the second - third quarter, so the market expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates around July [1]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on pullbacks. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700 US dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 730 - 750 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 840 - 900 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 28 - 30 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 35 - 36 US dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 7,800 - 8,000 yuan/kilogram and the resistance level around 8,600 - 8,900 yuan/kilogram [1].