石油追踪：欧佩克+会议前油价微跌

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the oil industry but discusses various factors influencing oil prices and production levels, indicating a cautious outlook based on current supply and demand dynamics. Core Insights - Crude oil prices have decreased week-on-week ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, with expectations of a final production increase of 411 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) in July due to new ex-shale projects entering the market and economic growth deceleration [1] - Geopolitical developments, including US-Iran nuclear talks and sanctions on Russia, have had mixed effects on oil prices, with cautious optimism surrounding negotiations offsetting earlier concerns [2] - Brazil's new FPSO Alexandre de Gusmão began production ahead of schedule, contributing to increased supply, while Norway's production also exceeded expectations [3] - Trackable net supply has increased by 0.1 million barrels per day (mb/d), driven by higher production from Russia and lower demand from China [4] - Global oil demand remains resilient, with Saudi domestic oil demand increasing by 0.1 mb/d year-on-year in April [6] Supply Dynamics - Kazakhstan and Iraq show a decrease in overproduction, but overall compliance improvements among OPEC+ members have been moderate [6] - The US Lower 48 crude production nowcast stands strong at 11.2 mb/d, while Canada’s liquids production nowcast is at 5.8 mb/d, slightly below expectations [14][20] - Russia's liquids production nowcast increased to 10.6 mb/d, while Iran's crude production remains stable at 3.5 mb/d [21] Demand Trends - China's oil demand nowcast has edged down by 0.1 mb/d to 16.7 mb/d, reflecting product stock builds [31] - OECD Europe oil demand has increased by 0.1 mb/d to 13.3 mb/d week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in demand [32] Inventory Levels - OECD commercial stocks have built up by 7 million barrels (mb) to 2,782 mb, which is 7 mb above the end-of-May forecast [40] - Global commercial stocks have increased by 18 mb, indicating a growing supply in the market [40] Price Dynamics - The Brent 1M/36M timespread gap with fair value has narrowed to -8 percentage points (pp), suggesting a normalization in pricing [51] - Average crude basis has increased by 1.1%, while the average crude prompt timespread remained flat [60] Geopolitical and Sanctioned Supply - The report highlights ongoing geopolitical risks, including sanctions on Russia and developments in Venezuela, which could impact supply dynamics [2][69]