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快手科技(1024.HK):业绩回顾:1Q25业绩符合预期,广告业务自2Q起环比改善;上调Kling货币化前景预期;买入
Goldman Sachs·2025-05-30 02:55

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou Technology with a revised target price of HK$63 per share [1][18][41] Core Insights - Kuaishou reported in-line results for 1Q25 and maintained its FY25 guidance on advertising, eCommerce, and profitability, indicating a positive growth momentum for the remainder of the year [1][18] - The advertising momentum is expected to improve, with management targeting a 12% year-on-year growth in 2Q25 and further acceleration in the second half of the year [2][32] - The revenue outlook for Kling AI has been raised significantly, reflecting a faster expansion of paying users and a competitive position in the global market [4][20] Summary by Sections Advertising - Management anticipates a 12% year-on-year growth in advertising for 2Q25, with expectations for high-teens growth in 2H25 driven by contributions from mini-games and local services [32] - Kuaishou's advertising revenue is projected to reach Rmb 81,351 million in 2025, reflecting a 12% growth from the previous year [33] eCommerce - Kuaishou targets a 13-15% year-on-year GMV growth, supported by stable livestreaming and eCommerce contributions [3] - The overall take rate for eCommerce is expected to remain stable at around 4% for 2025, with plans to improve monetization of pan-shelf based eCommerce traffic in the second half of the year [35][36] Kling AI - The revenue outlook for Kling AI has been raised to US$100 million for FY25, driven by an increase in paying users and enhanced marketing efforts [4][20] - Kling AI is positioned competitively against global peers, with expectations for rapid revenue growth in the coming quarters [27][28] Financial Projections - Revenue estimates for 2025-2027 have been fine-tuned upwards by 0.7% to 1.1%, reflecting better performance in livestreaming and other services [18] - The projected total revenue for Kuaishou is Rmb 140,739.1 million in 2025, with an EBITDA of Rmb 31,483.3 million [16]