KUAISHOU(01024) 光大证券·2025-05-30 05:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou-W (1024.HK) with a target price of HKD 68.8, compared to the current price of HKD 54.20 [4]. Core Views - Kuaishou's Q1 2025 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with total revenue of RMB 32.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%, and adjusted net profit of RMB 4.58 billion, up 4.4% year-on-year [1][2]. - The growth in revenue is driven by the online marketing segment, which generated RMB 18 billion, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase, and e-commerce GMV of RMB 332.3 billion, up 15.4% year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights the acceleration of commercialization for Kuaishou's AI capabilities, contributing to revenue growth and potential valuation increments [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Kuaishou's Q1 2025 gross margin was 54.6%, with operating profit at RMB 4.26 billion, a 6.6% year-on-year increase [1]. - Sales expenses rose to RMB 9.9 billion, a 5.5% increase year-on-year, attributed to increased subsidies for growth businesses [1]. - R&D expenses reached RMB 3.3 billion, a 16% increase year-on-year, reflecting investments in AI-related personnel [1]. Business Segments - Online marketing revenue was RMB 18 billion, slightly above expectations, driven by AI model improvements [2]. - E-commerce GMV was RMB 332.3 billion, with a 15.4% year-on-year growth, supported by a 30% increase in new merchants [2]. - Live streaming rewards reached RMB 9.8 billion, a 14.4% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in contracted agencies and streamers [2]. Growth Drivers - The commercialization of Kuaishou's AI, particularly the Keling AI, is expected to drive revenue growth, with Q1 2025 revenue from Keling AI exceeding RMB 150 million [2]. - Local life services revenue doubled year-on-year, and overseas revenue reached RMB 1.3 billion, a 33% increase year-on-year [2]. - User engagement metrics showed a 6% year-on-year increase in total usage time, with daily active users (DAU) at 410 million [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report slightly raises the adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to RMB 20.13 billion, RMB 24.18 billion, and RMB 27.70 billion, respectively [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the potential valuation increment from Kuaishou's AI developments, with a target price of HKD 68.8 based on robust fundamentals [2].