中原期货晨会纪要-20250530

Report Summary 1. Market Data Summary - Stock Indices: On May 30, 2025, major US stock indices (Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P 500) and the Hang Seng Index showed gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising 1.355%. The US dollar index decreased by 0.114% [2]. - Commodity Futures: COMEX gold and silver prices increased, while most base metals on the LME had mixed performance. In the domestic market, precious metals generally rose, while base metals mostly declined. Energy - related commodities like NYMEX crude and ICE Brent crude dropped, and most domestic chemical and agricultural products also showed price fluctuations [2][4]. 2. Macro - Economic News - Legal and Trade: The US Federal Appellate Court suspended a ruling against Trump's global tariffs. The US has cut off some channels for selling semiconductor design software to China. China's Ministry of Commerce responded to Sino - US economic and trade consultations and EU's anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires [7][8]. - Economic Policies: The Chinese government issued a plan to improve the market - based allocation system for resource and environmental elements. The Fed Chair met with Trump to discuss economic development without discussing monetary policy expectations [7][9]. - Economic Data: Shanghai's foreign trade in the first four months of this year increased by 1%, with exports growing 13.8%. China's large - scale light industry enterprises' revenue and profit increased by 4.9% and 3.8% respectively in the first four months [8]. 3. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: Spot supply is low due to farming seasons, prices are stable with an upward bias. Traders are cautious about chasing prices up, and attention should be paid to oil mills' purchase stops and supply rhythm [12]. - Oils and Fats: Market trading volume decreased significantly. Weather conditions in the US and Australia are favorable for oilseed production, and the market lacks upward momentum, suggesting a weak and volatile outlook [12]. - Sugar: The price has broken through the key support level. Fundamentally, supply pressure exists, and it is recommended to short at high prices, paying attention to support levels [12]. - Corn: Supply pressure remains, and demand is weak. Technically, the price is in a range, and it is advisable to wait and see, with the possibility of a long - position trial if the resistance is broken [12]. - Pigs: Spot prices stabilized and rebounded. The futures contract is oscillating around 13,500, waiting for a direction [12]. - Eggs: Spot prices are stable in the short - term but face medium - term pressure due to capacity and weather factors [14]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic Soda: In Shandong, the price is expected to be stable in the short - term, and the 2509 contract continues to trade at a low level [14]. - Urea: Supply is high, demand growth is slow, and the price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to agricultural demand replenishment and export fulfillment [14]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Overseas tariff risks remain, and prices are oscillating. Copper inventories are decreasing, and aluminum inventories also declined [14]. - Alumina: Spot prices are firm, but there is a medium - term surplus expectation. The 2509 contract may fluctuate around 3000 [16]. - Steel Products: The sentiment in the spot market has improved, and inventories are decreasing. However, due to macro - uncertainties, steel prices are in a low - level oscillation, and it is advisable to hold a light position before the holiday [16]. - Silicon - based Alloys: They are in a weak trend. Silicon iron lacks self - driving forces, and silicon manganese is affected by overseas ore supply and cost factors [16]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Prices are weakening due to reduced iron production and pessimistic market sentiment [18]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The price has broken through the support level, and it is recommended to hold short positions while being cautious of rebounds [18]. 3.4 Options and Finance - Stock Indices: A - share indices rebounded on May 29. Before the holiday, it is necessary to control risks. Attention should be paid to the upcoming PMI data and holiday consumption data [18][19]. - Options: On May 29, A - share indices rose, and futures indices showed different trends in basis and volume. Trend investors should be defensive, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddles after volatility reduction [20].