能源化策略日报：哈萨克斯坦表??法减产，OPEC+会议前?油价下跌-20250530

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the energy and chemical market, highlighting that the US restocking falls short of expectations, leading to a weakening of the chemical industry landscape. Multiple factors, including geopolitical events, policy uncertainties, and supply - demand dynamics, impact different energy and chemical products, resulting in various price trends and market outlooks for each product [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Crude Oil: On May 29, SC2507 closed at 467.1 yuan/barrel (+3.11%), and Brent2508 at 63.36 dollars/barrel (-1.51%). Kazakhstan's inability to cut production strengthens the expectation of OPEC+ quota increase in July, suppressing oil prices. However, short - term macro and geopolitical factors are positive. It is expected to fluctuate [6]. - Asphalt: The main futures closed at 3526 yuan/ton. With various negative factors such as high - yield US debt crisis, OPEC+ over - production, and sufficient domestic raw material supply, the asphalt price is over - valued and expected to decline. Although demand expectations are improving, the upside space is limited [6][7]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The main contract closed at 3037 yuan/ton. Affected by factors like OPEC+ over - production, increased import tariffs in China, and reduced demand in Egypt, it is over - valued and expected to decline with a weakening trend [7]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The main contract closed at 3530 yuan/ton. It follows the crude oil price fluctuations. Currently, it has low valuation and is affected by factors such as green fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution [10]. - LPG: On May 29, PG2507 closed at 4120 yuan/ton (+0.56%). With the weakening of crude oil and the reduction of Saudi CP contract prices, the cost support weakens. It is expected to bottom - out and fluctuate [8][10]. - PX: On May 29, PX CFR China Taiwan was 852(16) dollars/ton. Short - term crude oil weakness squeezes PX cost. Considering supply and demand, it is expected to continue to consolidate [12]. - PTA: On May 29, the spot price was 4960(93) yuan/ton. With continuous inventory reduction and the support of major suppliers, it is expected to be relatively strong and fluctuate [12]. - Ethylene Glycol (EG): On May 29, the price was in a low - level upward trend. The overall supply increases while demand decreases, and it is expected to fluctuate during the maintenance and inventory - reduction period [14][15]. - Short - Fiber: On May 29, it rose following the suspension of US tariffs. With the decline of printing, dyeing, and weaving operations and the shortfall of US restocking, it is expected to fluctuate [15][16]. - Bottle Chips: On May 29, the price of polyester raw material futures rebounded. With the decline of downstream operations and the shortfall of US restocking, the processing fee expansion is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [16][18]. - Methanol: On May 29, the futures price fluctuated. With the increase of port inventory and supply pressure, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [21]. - Urea: On May 29, the factory - warehouse and market low - end prices were 1810(+0) and 1860(+0) respectively. With the increase of supply and weak domestic demand, the spot price may be under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [21]. - Plastic (LLDPE): On May 29, the main contract fluctuated. Affected by factors such as the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy, oil price increase concerns, and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [24]. - PP: On May 29, the main contract fluctuated. With limited macro - level boosting, oil price increase concerns, and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [25][26]. - PVC: The benchmark price of East - China calcium - carbide PVC was 4730(+0) yuan/ton. With short - term inventory reduction due to maintenance and long - term pressure from new capacity, weak domestic demand, and potential export decline, it is expected to be under pressure [27]. - Caustic Soda: On May 29, the price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2750(+0) yuan/ton. With supply and demand increasing in late May and potentially weakening in June, the spot price may peak, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [27]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period Spread: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as SC (M1 - M2) at - 7 with a change of - 12, and WTI (M1 - M2) at 0.69 with a change of 0.05 [29]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, the basis of asphalt is 126 with a change of - 33, and the warehouse receipt is 91510 [30]. - Inter - variety Spread: There are various inter - variety spread values and changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA at - 3 with a change of - 4 [31]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report mentions the monitoring of methanol, urea, styrene, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle chips, asphalt, crude oil, LPG, fuel oil, LLDPE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda, but specific data details are not fully presented [32][44][56]