黑色金属数据日报-20250530

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The core logic of the black sector this year is the further relaxation of furnace material supply, upstream industries in the industrial chain making concessions, cost loosening leading to a downward shift in the valuation center. There is a need to maintain the idea of rolling sell - hedging or spot pre - sales to realize production profits [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the overall trading logic is still that after the furnace material supply is loose, the upstream continuously makes concessions to the downstream, and the cost loosening causes the valuation center of the entire sector to move down further. Unilateral short positions are still recommended [5][6]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, negative feedback intensifies, and prices are mainly under pressure [6]. - For iron ore, contradictions in the off - season are gradually accumulating. The market needs to consider the situation of steel apparent demand decline and fundamental marginal weakening after the peak season ends [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - Prices and Changes: On May 29, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2985 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan increase (0.13%), HC2601 at 3118 yuan/ton with a 12 - yuan increase (0.39%), I2601 at 670 yuan/ton with a 6 - yuan increase (0.90%), J2601 at 1350 yuan/ton with a 25.5 - yuan decrease (- 1.85%), and JM2601 at 778 yuan/ton with a 27 - yuan decrease (- 3.35%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2978 yuan/ton with a 14 - yuan increase (0.47%), HC2510 at 3110 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase (0.32%), I2509 at 707 yuan/ton with a 9 - yuan decrease (- 1.29%), J2509 at 1332 yuan/ton with a 22 - yuan decrease (- 1.62%), and JM2509 at 759 yuan/ton with a 31.5 - yuan decrease (- 3.98%) [2]. - Spreads: On May 29, the cross - month spreads for RB2510 - 2601 was - 7 yuan/ton, HC2510 - 2601 was - 8 yuan/ton, I2509 - 2601 was 37 yuan/ton, J2509 - 2601 was - 18 yuan/ton, and JM2509 - 2601 was - 19 yuan/ton [2]. - Price Ratios and Profits: On May 29, the coil - to - rebar spread was 132 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.21, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.75, the rebar disk profit was 187.70 yuan/ton, and the coking disk profit was 322.53 yuan/ton [2]. Spot Market - Steel Products: On May 29, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, and Guangzhou rebar were 3130 yuan/ton, 3150 yuan/ton, and 3220 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2910 yuan/ton, and the Platts Index was 97.20. The prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coil were 3220 yuan/ton, 3230 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Some steel mills plan to negotiate a 20 - yuan/ton reduction in the base price of first - grade coke starting from June 1. Coking coal prices are mainly falling. For example, the port trade quasi - quotation is 1220 (- 10), and the coking coal price index is 1109.2 (- 5.8). In the Ganqimaodu Port, the price of Meng 6 raw coal is 733 (- 7), Meng 5 clean coal is 918 (- 2), and Meng 3 clean coal is 905 (- 5) [5]. Industry Analysis - Steel Products: On Thursday, there was a turnaround in tariff policies, which briefly boosted market risk appetite. However, from a medium - term perspective, the conditions for substantial improvement in the industry are not sufficient. Domestic demand for building materials is gradually entering the seasonal off - season, and the risk of weakening in the export - oriented sheet metal chain has not been fully explored [4]. - Coking Coal and Coke: On the spot side, some steel mills plan to lower the base price of first - grade coke. Coking coal prices continue to fall. On the futures side, due to the expected cancellation of tariffs, market risk appetite increased. In terms of the industry, steel demand is expected to weaken seasonally from June to July, and coking coal data continues to deteriorate, with coal mines continuously accumulating inventory and pig iron output slightly declining [5][6]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: For ferrosilicon, supply decreases, direct demand is okay, but terminal demand is poor, and cost support weakens. For silicomanganese, supply and demand are relatively balanced, but there is a marginal increase in supply recently, and costs also move down [6]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore shipments are gradually recovering. In June, mines will enter the end - of - season and annual - volume - rushing stages. Pig iron output is still at a high level, but there are signs of peaking. The market needs to consider the situation of steel apparent demand decline and fundamental marginal weakening after the peak season ends [6].