长江期货棉纺策略日报-20250530

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Cotton is expected to move in a volatile range between 13080 - 13415 yuan/ton due to factors such as the approaching US Treasury bond maturity in June, changes in CFTC positions, and uncertainty over tariff policies [1]. - PTA is likely to face pressure as macro - level benefits are digested, downstream demand is weak, and supply is expected to increase [3]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to trade in a range, with potential price corrections after a rapid short - term increase [3]. - Short - fiber is expected to trade in a range, with prices being strong in the near term and weak in the long term due to the approaching off - season and the end of upstream spring maintenance [4]. - Sugar is expected to have a weak and volatile trend, influenced by factors such as the new sugar - cane season in Brazil and domestic supply - demand dynamics [4][5]. - Apples are expected to trade at a high level in a volatile range due to low inventory, although the market is currently in a state of stable demand [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - The spot price of lint cotton is relatively stable, with the 3128B index at 14578 yuan/ton, and the C32S yarn price index at 20470 yuan/ton. The cotton - yarn price difference is 5892 yuan/ton, and the basis is 1000 - 1300 yuan/ton [1]. - As of May 29, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts were 11537 (- 23) sheets, including 11157 (- 52) registered warehouse receipts and 380 (+ 29) valid forecasts [9]. - India has raised the minimum support price (MSP) for seed cotton in the 2025/26 season, with an 8.3% increase for medium - length cotton, 7.8% for longer - length cotton, and 7.9% for S - 6 cotton [9]. - In March 2025, US wholesalers' sales of clothing and fabrics increased by 3.49% year - on - year, inventory decreased by 6.46% year - on - year, and the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased to 2.06 [9]. PTA - As of May 22, 2025, the average PTA processing margin was 400.19 yuan/ton, up 2.38% month - on - month and down 2.33% year - on - year [8]. - As of May 22, the weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate was 77.22%, up 1.49% month - on - month and 5.39% year - on - year [8]. - As of the 20th, the PTA spot price dropped by 140 to 4855 yuan/ton. The polyester production cut affected market sentiment, and the spot basis weakened and then recovered [2][3]. Ethylene Glycol - The total capacity utilization rate of ethylene glycol in China was 55.38%, down 5.66% month - on - month. The production decreased by 9.28% week - on - week [14]. - International oil prices have declined, reducing the cost of ethylene glycol. Domestic maintenance has increased significantly, and imports have remained low, while demand has maintained a high operating rate [3]. Short - fiber - As of May 8, the weekly output of domestic short - fiber was 16.14 tons, a decrease of 0.55 tons month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.33%, down 2.91% month - on - month [11]. - The cost of raw materials has increased, and supply has decreased, pushing up short - fiber prices. However, downstream demand remains weak, and prices are expected to be strong in the near term and weak in the long term [4]. Sugar - Forecasts suggest that in the first half of May in Brazil's central - southern region, sugar production may decline by 11.5% to 229 tons, and ethanol production may decline by 7.9% to 1.85 billion liters [14]. - Ukraine has completed the beet sowing for the 2025/26 season, with a total sown area of 217,100 hectares [14]. - Brazil exported 1.5723 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of May, a 23.15% decrease compared to the same period last year [14]. Apple - As of May 28, 2025, the total cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas was 1.5196 million tons, a decrease of 188,900 tons week - on - week [14]. - The prices of apples in Shaanxi Luochuan and Shandong Qixia are stable, with different price ranges for different grades [5][14][15].