Kingfisher：翠丰集团（KGF.L）：年初开局鼓舞人心，尽管得益于英国有利天气；目标价305便士，中性评级-20250530

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Kingfisher with a price target (PT) of 305p [1][3][33] Core Insights - Kingfisher experienced a positive start to the year, particularly in the UK and France, with 1Q26 like-for-like (LFL) sales increasing by 1.8%, and 2.7% when excluding a negative calendar impact [2][3] - The UK & Ireland reported a strong LFL sales growth of 5.9%, driven by B&Q's 7.9% and Screwfix's 2.9% growth, while France and Poland faced declines of 3.2% [2][3] - The report highlights that some of the growth in the UK during 1Q may have been pulled forward from 2Q, and management remains cautious with unchanged earnings guidance [1][3] Financial Performance - The adjusted pre-tax profit (PBT) guidance for FY26 is set between £480 million and £540 million, with an updated FY26E PBT forecast of £524 million [3][5] - Online sales grew by 9.3% year-on-year, contributing 20% to group sales, and trade penetration, including Screwfix, increased to 29% from 26% in 1Q25 [2][3] - The report projects total revenue for FY26E at £12,661.7 million, with a slight decline from the previous year, but anticipates a growth of 3.0% in FY27E [5][16] Regional Performance - In the UK, sales are expected to grow from £6,456 million in FY25 to £6,689.9 million in FY26E, reflecting a growth rate of 3.6% [29] - France's sales are projected to decline from £3,883 million in FY25 to £3,746.3 million in FY26E, indicating a challenging market environment [31] - The Polish market is experiencing a decline, with LFL sales down by 3.2%, reflecting geopolitical impacts on the DIY market [1][2] Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a DCF-derived price target of 305p, equating to approximately 12x FY27E P/E [33][34] - Key financial ratios include a projected P/E of 13.7 for FY26E and a free cash flow yield of 8.5% [5][11] - The report notes a dividend yield of 4.2% for FY26E, with a consistent dividend payout ratio [5][11]