电力追踪：美国强劲的电力需求：自下而上与自上而下

Investment Rating - The report indicates a solid outlook for US power demand, with a year-over-year growth rate of 3.9% projected for 1Q2025, compared to a historical average of 1.0% over the past two decades [5]. Core Insights - US power demand growth remains robust despite macroeconomic uncertainties, with both bottom-up and top-down analyses supporting this conclusion [5]. - The average year-over-year growth rate for power sales in the US for 1Q2025 is reported at 2.0%, with a median of 1.8%, after adjustments for weather and leap years [5]. - The top-down approach indicates a significant increase in total power demand, highlighting a divergence from the bottom-up approach due to the sample size of utilities covered [9]. Summary by Sections Bottom-Up Analysis - The bottom-up approach utilized earnings reports from various US power utilities, adjusting for weather and leap-year effects to derive a growth rate of 2.0% [5]. - Utilities such as Xcel Energy (XEL) and WEC Energy Group (WEC) reported demand growth in line with their annual expectations, with XEL maintaining a 3% growth forecast for retail sales in 2025 [9]. Top-Down Analysis - The top-down analysis, based on EIA data, shows a year-over-year growth rate of 3.9% for total US power demand in 1Q2025, significantly higher than the historical average [5]. - The report notes that the differences between the two approaches may stem from the sample of utilities representing only 25-30% of overall US power sales, as well as varying weather adjustment methodologies [9]. Regional Insights - The report emphasizes that regional variations in demand can be significant, and the national weather-adjustment methodology may overestimate demand during extreme weather events [9]. - Large load customers are expected to continue driving demand, while residential demand is anticipated to grow due to customer increases and higher usage [9].