能化策略报告：PTA：供增需减下关注结构回落机会-20250530

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Terminal order demand fails to meet expectations, and the need to digest previous stockpiles will lead to continued difficulties in downstream shipments, inventory accumulation, and strong driving forces for downstream polyester plants to cut production. PTA demand will significantly decline starting from June [2]. - After June, multiple PTA plants will end maintenance, and new plants will be put into operation, leading to a significant increase in supply pressure. PTA may end the destocking phase in June, reaching a state of supply - demand balance or slight inventory accumulation, and the basis may decline [2]. - Against the backdrop of increasing PTA supply and decreasing demand, the basis in June will face the risk of falling from a high level, and the 9 - 1 structure, which has been pushed up by spot prices recently, may also decline. As crude oil is also under significant downward pressure due to increased production later, opportunities for the structure to decline can be observed for right - side entry [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Strategy Overview - After more than half a month of tariff relaxation, the partial resumption of terminal orders fails to make up for the previous losses. Downstream chemical fiber profits remain low, and production cuts continue. The destocking amplitude in June may significantly decrease. Opportunities for 9 - 1 spread decline can be continuously monitored [6]. 2. Terminal Negative Feedback Still Has Room to Develop, and Downstream Production Cuts Have Continuous Driving Forces - After the tariff was announced, downstream production and sales soared, PTA basis increased significantly, and the spot 9 - 1 spread was continuously pushed up. In the short term, PTA destocking can continue, and the supply is favorable due to many maintenance devices. PTA spot liquidity is expected to remain tight in the short term [7]. - However, terminal and downstream negative feedback is the main logic recently. Terminal inventory is high, and the support for inventory procurement is low. Most enterprises' raw material inventory has reached over 30 days, and the average inventory usage in the industry can last until mid - June [9]. - Order recovery is lower than expected. The actual operable time within the 90 - day relaxation window is limited, and customers prefer finished products or fabrics. Terminal startup levels are still significantly lower than the annual average, and downstream chemical fiber production cuts are increasing [10]. - Although downstream profits have increased, it is only on paper. Long - filament enterprises are forced to accumulate inventory at high raw material prices, so production cuts are a reasonable choice. Downstream production cuts are expected to continue until mid - June, which will have a negative impact on polyester raw materials [18][23]. 3. Maintenance Returns and New Plants Are Put into Operation, and PTA May Maintain Supply - Demand Balance in June - By the end of May, the high PTA spot basis is due to high maintenance volume from April to May. In June, maintenance volume decreases significantly, and new plants will be put into operation, increasing supply pressure [24]. - The current spot tightness is due to the sharp reduction of short - term inventory in the circulation link. However, once the manufacturer's inventory accumulates, the basis may start to decline in mid - to late June. PTA processing fees support plant restart, and there will be more room for right - side operation [27]. - In terms of exports, the narrowing of the domestic - foreign price difference may weaken the PTA export strength of mainstream suppliers in June. Overall, PTA supply and demand in June may change from significant destocking to balance or slight inventory accumulation [29]. 4. Strategy: Wait for the Right - Side Entry Point for the Convergence of Monthly Spreads - Unless affected by sanctions, geopolitical factors, or production accidents, oil prices are likely to be shorted on rallies under OPEC+'s production resumption rhythm. If peak - season demand fails to meet expectations, it will be unfavorable for the polyester price center to continue rising [30]. - In the short term, the 9 - 1 spread is expected to remain high due to destocking. After June, the tight inventory in the circulation link is likely to be alleviated. The time for the PTA basis to drive the structure to decline can be observed from late June to July. Wait for the right - side entry opportunity after the long - position holders start to leave the market [32].