光大期货能化商品日报-20250530

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the evaluated energy - chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oil price is affected by macro - sentiment changes, the uncertainty of Trump's tariff event, and the expectation of OPEC+ production increase. It is expected to oscillate until the OPEC+ meeting results are out. During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the oil price amplitude is expected to be large [1]. - The fuel oil market has different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur products. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by seasonal demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by factors such as arbitrage cargo inflows. The LU - FU spread has been narrowing, and the cost - side oil price pressure may affect the absolute prices of FU and LU [2]. - The asphalt market has limited short - term supply pressure but high profit - driven production potential. The approaching rainy season in the South may limit demand, leading to limited upward space and potential inventory accumulation [4]. - The polyester market is affected by factors such as crude oil price changes, PTA and EG device restarts and overhauls, and polyester production cuts. It is expected to oscillate in the short term following the cost side [4]. - The rubber market has a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and the sales of automobiles and tires face pressure, resulting in a short - term oscillating trend [6]. - The methanol market has reduced domestic supply due to device overhauls, and overseas device start - up has decreased, but the short - term arrival volume is recovering. The MTO device start - up has increased, and the overall price is expected to oscillate [6]. - The polyolefin market has many upstream overhauls and downstream rigid demand purchases, with inventory starting to decline. However, due to high inventory and supply levels, the price is expected to oscillate [8]. - The PVC market has a short - term release of fundamental pressure due to overhauls, but with device restarts, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Thursday, WTI July contract closed down $0.9 to $60.94/barrel, a 1.46% decline; Brent July contract closed down $0.75 to $64.15/barrel, a 1.16% decline; SC2507 closed at 452.5 yuan/barrel, down 9.1 yuan/barrel, a 1.97% decline. The Trump tariff event is still uncertain, and EIA inventory data shows a decrease in commercial crude oil inventory and an increase in strategic oil reserve inventory. The market is worried about the OPEC+ production increase on Saturday, and the price oscillates. During the holiday, the amplitude may be large [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Thursday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil FU2507 rose 2.42% to 3052 yuan/ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil LU2507 rose 2.09% to 3558 yuan/ton. Singapore fuel oil inventory has different changes. The low - sulfur spot premium is strengthening, and high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by seasonal demand. The LU - FU spread has been narrowing, and the cost - side oil price pressure may affect the price [2]. - Asphalt: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt BU2507 rose 0.51% to 3514 yuan/ton. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt enterprises decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased. The short - term supply pressure is limited, but the approaching rainy season in the South may limit demand, and the price may weaken [4]. - Polyester: TA509 rose 3.04% to 4814 yuan/ton, EG2509 rose 1.11% to 4359 yuan/ton, and PX futures main contract 509 rose 3% to 6788 yuan/ton. There are restarts and overhauls of PTA and EG devices, and the polyester production load is expected to be reduced. The price is expected to oscillate following the cost side [4]. - Rubber: On Thursday, the main contract of natural rubber RU2509 rose 75 yuan/ton to 13880 yuan/ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber NR rose 335 yuan/ton to 12580 yuan/ton. The tire enterprise start - up loads have different changes, and the rubber market has a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, with a short - term oscillating trend [6]. - Methanol: The supply has decreased due to domestic device overhauls, and overseas device start - up has decreased, but the short - term arrival volume is recovering. The MTO device start - up has increased, and the overall price is expected to oscillate [6]. - Polyolefins: The upstream has many overhauls, and the downstream has rigid demand purchases, with inventory starting to decline. However, due to high inventory and supply levels, the price is expected to oscillate [8]. - Polyvinyl Chloride: The market price is weakly adjusted. The supply is expected to increase as overhaul devices resume and new overhauls are limited. The demand is relatively stable due to the stable real - estate construction. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of multiple energy - chemical products on May 30, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with the previous day, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - The US Court of Appeals temporarily stopped the court's decision on Trump's tariffs, allowing the tariffs to remain in effect for the time being. The Trump administration expected the court's ruling to be in its favor [11]. - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report shows that last week, US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all declined. The commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 28 million barrels to 440.4 million barrels, contrary to the market's expected increase of 1.18 million barrels [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of multiple energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, EG, short - fiber, LLDPE, PP, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle chips [13][14][17] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of multiple energy - chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [28][31][35] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of multiple energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European - line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [44][46][49] 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - The report shows the spread and ratio charts of inter - variety contracts of multiple energy - chemical products, including crude oil (internal - external spread, B - W spread), fuel oil (high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio), BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [61][63][65] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report presents the production profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [70][73]