港股市场流动性与估值弹性分析

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the non-bank financial sector [1]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is expected to significantly benefit from improved liquidity, with a historical high in average daily trading volume (ADT) observed in Q1 2025 [4][8]. - The correlation between Hong Kong stocks and U.S. Treasury yields indicates that liquidity is a primary driver of Hong Kong stock performance during certain economic conditions [5][8]. - The valuation of HKEX is currently in a recovery phase, with potential for further increases as market conditions improve [17]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Liquidity Improvement - The relationship between HKEX and U.S. Treasury yields shows that U.S. dollar liquidity is a key factor affecting HKEX's ADT [8]. - Since 2025, the average daily trading volume has rebounded significantly due to factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and a renewed interest in Chinese assets [8][10]. - HKEX has a strong beta attribute, with its total market value highly correlated with ADT, indicating optimistic long-term growth expectations [12][13]. Section 2: Growth Potential - Southbound capital flows are expected to further drive growth in HKEX's ADT, with a notable increase in the proportion of Southbound capital holdings in Hong Kong stocks [21][25]. - The diversification of HKEX's business, particularly in derivatives, has enhanced short-term revenue stability [31]. - An increase in IPO fundraising is anticipated to boost HKEX's ADT, with a strong pipeline of companies waiting to list [37][38]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a focus on the non-bank financial sector, highlighting the potential for continued market recovery and the structural reforms benefiting leading brokerage firms [41].