从建设环节看雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程投资机会

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has received approval for construction, with an estimated investment exceeding 1 trillion yuan, an installed capacity of approximately 60 million kilowatts, and an annual power generation capacity of 300 billion kilowatt-hours, equivalent to more than three Three Gorges power stations [1][11] - The project is classified as a key investment project by the National Development and Reform Commission, emphasizing the importance of its construction [1][11] - The report highlights investment opportunities in construction segments such as diversion construction, blasting, foundation treatment, dam construction, and corresponding material usage [1][11] Summary by Sections Construction Segment - The estimated investment for the Yarlung Tsangpo downstream hydropower project is 1,026.1 billion yuan, with civil engineering accounting for about 60%, electromechanical equipment for about 30%, and reservoir compensation fees for about 10% [2] - Key companies to focus on include China Power Construction and China Energy Engineering for main design and construction [2] - The foundation treatment segment is expected to require an investment of approximately 61-93 billion yuan due to the complex geological environment [2] - The project will need about 25 Tunnel Boring Machines (TBM), with an estimated investment of 5-7.5 billion yuan for TBM equipment [2][20] - The total demand for explosives in the blasting segment is expected to exceed 1 million tons, with a focus on companies like Gaozheng Minexplosion and Yipuli [2][21] Material Segment - The project is expected to generate a demand for 54 million tons of cement over a 15-year construction period, translating to an annual average demand of 3.6 million tons [3] - Key companies in the cement sector include Tibet Tianlu and Huaxin Cement, with a focus on the water-reducing agent market involving Subote [3] Key Company Recommendations - China Power Construction (601669.SH): Buy rating with projected EPS growth from 0.70 in 2024 to 0.91 in 2027 [8] - China Energy Engineering (601868.SH): Buy rating with projected EPS growth from 0.20 in 2024 to 0.24 in 2027 [8] - Gaozheng Minexplosion (002827.SZ): Hold rating with projected EPS growth from 0.54 in 2024 to 2.05 in 2027 [8] - Tibet Tianlu (600326.SH): Hold rating with projected EPS growth from -0.08 in 2024 to 0.37 in 2027 [8] - Huaxin Cement (600801.SH): Buy rating with projected EPS growth from 1.16 in 2024 to 1.96 in 2027 [8] - Subote (603916.SH): Buy rating with projected EPS growth from 0.22 in 2024 to 0.72 in 2027 [8]