Vornado(US:VNO) Goldman Sachs·2025-05-30 02:50Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Sell" rating to Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) with a 12-month price target of $33.00, indicating a downside potential of 13.1% from the current price of $37.97 [14]. Core Insights - Management believes it is in a landlord's market, with strong tenant demand for Class A office space in Manhattan and constrained new supply due to high replacement costs and interest rates [3]. - VNO's New York occupancy rate decreased from 88.8% at the end of Q4 2024 to 84.4% in Q1 2025 but is expected to rise to the low 90% range within 12 months due to leasing activity [3]. - The company completed significant leasing transactions, including a 337,000 square foot lease by Universal Music Group at PENN 2 and a 222,000 square foot lease at 555 California Street in San Francisco [3][4]. - VNO's 2025 comparable FFO is expected to be flat compared to 2024, with growth anticipated by 2027 driven by the lease-up of PENN 1 and PENN 2 [4]. Financial Performance - VNO's NTM FFO is currently trading at 17.9x, below its historical average of 22.3x, while trading at a 6.0% premium relative to the REIT sector [10]. - On an AFFO basis, VNO is trading at 37.9x NTM AFFO, significantly higher than its pre-pandemic average of 32.0x, with an 88% premium compared to the REITs average [10]. - The report provides updated estimates for VNO's FFO and AFFO, reflecting adjustments due to faster leasing at PENN 2 and revised capitalized interest [12]. Valuation Trends - The report notes that VNO's premium versus the REIT sector is approaching historical average levels, indicating potential valuation normalization [6]. - The updated price target reflects a change in the Q5-Q8 target AFFO multiple to 27.0x, up from 26.2x, based on recent leasing strength and market movements [12].