美国上诉法院恢复关税，端午假期前维持震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Due to US tariffs and the Fed's stance, the probability of a divergence between the US dollar and US Treasury yields is high, which will trigger asset fluctuations. The domestic A-share market is expected to rebound after the Dragon Boat Festival or after filling the gap. The market may experience short - term fluctuations, and the real market trend will be observed after the festival [2][8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the US in Q1 was - 0.2%, higher than the expected and previous value of - 0.3%. The monthly rate of the existing home sales contract index in April was - 6.3%, lower than the expected - 1% and the previous value of 5.5%, indicating an economic slowdown in Q1 and a cooling real - estate market. Fed's Goolsbee said that if tariffs are avoided, the Fed may return to a rate - cut scenario. The probability of a rate cut in September is 52.4%. US tariffs are volatile, causing overnight market fluctuations. The US dollar index fell, US Treasury yields rose, gold rose, US stocks rose, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate first depreciated and then appreciated. A divergence between the US dollar index and US Treasury yields is expected, and capital market volatility will increase [1][4] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Thursday, the market rebounded with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.24%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.37%. Stocks generally rose, and trading volume increased. Brokerage and technology sectors were active. Computer, medicine, electronics, and military industries led the gains, while beauty care, banking, food and beverage, and petrochemical sectors declined. There were 4468 rising stocks and 831 falling stocks [2][5] 1.3 Important Information - The US Court of Appeals allowed Trump's tariff policy to continue temporarily. Trump's officials were confident of victory in the lawsuit and believed alternative ways to impose tariffs could be found. Three agreements are expected in the next few weeks. The US Treasury Secretary said trade partners' attitudes remained unchanged in the past 48 hours. Trump met Powell and asked for a rate cut, but Powell insisted on monetary policy independence. There is no plan for Putin to talk with Trump. The CPC Central Committee General Office and the State Council General Office issued an opinion on improving the market - based allocation system for resource and environmental elements. China's Ministry of Commerce responded to US semiconductor export controls and urged the US to cancel tariffs. The US decided to revoke Chinese student visas, and China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticized it. The Hongdao operating system was launched. Yushu's name change sparked listing speculation, and the company said it was a routine change [6][7] 1.4 Today's Strategy - Thursday's A - share and overseas market movements reflected news. Given US tariffs and the Fed's attitude, a divergence between the US dollar and US Treasury yields is likely, causing asset fluctuations. The domestic A - share market is expected to rebound after the Dragon Boat Festival or after filling the gap. The Thursday's rebound was unexpected, and the market may fluctuate in the short - term. The real market trend will be observed after the festival [8] 2. Futures Market Tracking Futures Market Performance - Data on the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change rates, basis, and other indicators of various stock index futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided [10] Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest - Data on trading volume, trading volume changes, trading value, trading value changes, open interest, open interest changes, and other indicators of various stock index futures contracts are provided, as well as the positions of the top 20 members [11] 3. Spot Market Tracking Spot Market Performance - Information on the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading value, and other indicators of major domestic stock indexes such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index is provided. It also includes data on different sectors such as upstream, mid - stream, consumer, TMT, and financial sectors [33] Impact of Market Styles on Index Fluctuations - Analyzes the impact of market styles (cycle, consumption, growth, finance, stability) on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes in terms of the number of stocks, weights, and daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions [34][36] Index Valuation - Presents the current valuations and historical percentile rankings of important indexes and Shenwan sectors [37][40] Other Market Indicators - Includes data on the Sunday average trading volume, Sunday average turnover rate, number of rising and falling stocks, north - bound funds, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balance, and margin trading net purchase amount and its proportion in A - share trading volume [42][50] 4. Liquidity Tracking - Information on central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest rate levels is provided, presented in graphical form [52]