谨慎应对变化
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-05-30 08:20
- Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each financial derivative product, the following outlooks are given: - Stock Index Futures: Neutral (suggests a wait - and - see approach) [6] - Stock Index Options: Neutral (suggests a wait - and - see approach for direction strategies) [6] - Treasury Bond Futures: Neutral (suggests a trend of oscillation) [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - Stock Index Futures: External factors bring short - term positive news, but due to uncertainties in tariff policies and lack of fundamental support, investors are advised to wait and see instead of actively increasing positions [6]. - Stock Index Options: The volatility is further suppressed, and the market has weak expectations for fluctuations. Direction strategies suggest waiting and seeing, with a focus on covered call strategies and light - position long - volatility strategies [2][6]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Market risk appetite has increased, suppressing the bullish sentiment in the bond market. Attention should be paid to upcoming economic data and central bank operations, and different strategies are proposed for different trading purposes [6][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: The market volume increased and prices rose, with the All - A Index up 1.17%. The catalyst was the US court's prevention of Trump's tariff policy, leading to a general rise in the Asia - Pacific market [6]. - Futures Market Signals: The total position of IM increased by nearly 30,000 contracts, and the discount of the current - quarter contract of IM narrowed, indicating active long - position capital layout [6]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see due to uncertainties in tariff policies and the low cost - performance of small - cap stocks [6]. Stock Index Options - Market Liquidity: Driven by the strong performance of the underlying assets, the trading volume increased by nearly 50%, mainly concentrated in the morning session [2][6]. - Volatility: Volatility declined rapidly after the mid - day session, with both call and put volatilities decreasing, indicating weak market expectations for fluctuations [2][6]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see for direction strategies, focus on covered call strategies, and lightly position in long - volatility strategies at low levels [2][6]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Treasury bond futures continued to be weak, with the T main contract opening lower and trading at a low level throughout the day [3][6][7]. - Influencing Factors: Uncertainties in Trump's tariff policy, strong stock market performance, and upcoming 5 - month PMI data affected market sentiment [3][6][8]. - Investment Advice: Trend strategy: oscillation; Hedging strategy: pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels; Basis strategy: appropriately pay attention to basis widening; Curve strategy: steeper curve has higher odds in the medium term [8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - US Economic Data: The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending May 24, 2025, was 240,000, higher than the previous value of 227,000 and the forecast of 230,000. The annual rate of the US core PCE price index in April 2025 is expected to be 2.6%, and the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in May 2025 is expected to be 51 [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - Airlines: Starting from June 5, 2025, airlines will adjust the fuel surcharge for domestic flights. Flights of 800 kilometers or less will be exempt from the surcharge, while flights over 800 kilometers will charge 10 yuan per passenger per segment [9]. - Cultural Exports: Four departments jointly released the list of key cultural export enterprises and projects for 2025 - 2026, identifying 404 enterprises and 121 projects [10]. - Tariffs: The Chinese side urges the US to completely cancel unilateral tariff - imposing measures, and the US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff policies were illegal [10]. - Credit Bonds: Multiple credit bond ETFs have received approval from the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation to be included in the repurchase collateral pool [10].