OBIC：上调GSe/TPs，但维持中性评级，因缺乏估值吸引力；ERP需求极具防御性，预示稳定增长将持续-20250530

Investment Rating - The investment rating for OBIC is Neutral, maintained due to a lack of valuation appeal despite stable growth prospects in ERP demand [1][9][30]. Core Insights - OBIC's operating profit estimates for FY3/26 have been raised to ¥87.0 billion, reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand for cloud services and large ERP projects [1][2][19]. - The company is expected to achieve double-digit profit growth, with the system support (SS) business projected to grow by 14% year-over-year in FY3/26 [1][23]. - The target price has been increased to ¥5,230 from ¥4,770, based on a DCF model that reflects the company's high earnings stability [1][32]. Financial Estimates - Revenue forecasts for FY3/26 are set at ¥132.5 billion, with operating profits expected to reach ¥87.0 billion, slightly above the company's guidance of ¥86.2 billion [2][4]. - The operating margin is anticipated to improve, driven by growth in the high-margin SS business and greater efficiency in SG&A expenses [13][31]. - The company has a market capitalization of ¥2.3 trillion and an enterprise value of ¥2.1 trillion [4]. Business Segments - The system integration (SI) business is expected to see stable growth, with sales and operating profits rising by 6% and 7% year-over-year, respectively [19][22]. - The SS business, which includes ERP maintenance, is projected to drive overall earnings, with sales and operating profits increasing by 13% and 14% year-over-year in FY3/26 [23][24]. - The shift to cloud services is significant, with the proportion of customers using cloud services expected to rise to 91% by the end of FY3/26 [23][25]. Market Position - OBIC is focusing on large corporate clients, competing with major players like Oracle and SAP, and is gradually increasing its market share [22][31]. - The company has nearly 10 large projects underway, each with development costs exceeding ¥500 million, indicating high utilization rates [22][31]. - The manufacturing sector accounts for approximately 30% of OBIC's sales, with strong demand for ERP upgrades due to a high proportion of legacy systems [19][22].