Minsheng Securities·2025-05-30 09:04Group 1: Thermal Power - The role of thermal power is transitioning from "main power source" to "regulating power source," with a significant decrease in installed capacity growth and operating hours [11][13] - In the short term, coal prices are expected to remain weak, which will enhance the EPS of thermal power companies. The average coal price in Q1 2025 was 732 RMB/ton, down 19% year-on-year [23][24] - In the long term, the profitability of coal power companies is expected to stabilize due to a multi-revenue system, with capacity prices increasing and auxiliary service revenues from peak regulation expected to rise [33][36] Group 2: Green Power - The supply-side expansion of green power is slowing, shifting from "quantity first" to "quality first," with wind and solar installations expected to exceed thermal power as the norm [43][44] - The green power sector faces several challenges, including increasing reliance on subsidy receivables, which may impact financial statements [48] - By Q1 2025, the total installed capacity of wind and solar power reached 1.482 billion kW, surpassing thermal power for the first time [43][44] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Focus on thermal power companies such as Huadian International, Jiantou Energy, and Funiu Co., as their performance is expected to improve with low coal prices [5] - Large hydropower companies like Yangtze Power are recommended due to stable performance and attractive dividend yields in a low-interest-rate environment [5] - The investment strategy emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving electricity pricing landscape and regional supply-demand dynamics [28][25]