固定收益点评：关税禁止令后可能走向

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The tariff threat has been partially but not completely lifted. If the Trump administration loses the appeal, it can still impose tariffs through non - IEEPA means, and the tariff and fiscal outlook remain unclear. If the loss is confirmed, except for Article 122, the Trump team will not be able to bypass the investigation process to exercise unlimited tariff power, and future tariff implementation will move towards a long - process and small - scale direction, reducing the US's bargaining chips in tariff negotiations [3][20]. - In the market, stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and gold showed mixed trends. Initially, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange rose while gold fell. After the news was digested, asset performances diverged. Under the "sell the US" trading strategy, the trends of the US dollar and gold reversed. The US dollar index closed down 0.60% on May 29, and London gold closed up 0.95%. Interest rates continued to decline, with 1/2/5/10Y yields falling 3/4/5/4bp respectively. The stock market opened high and closed low, with the Nasdaq up 0.39%, the S&P 500 up 0.40%, and the Dow up 0.28% [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Tariff Prohibition and Its Scope - On Wednesday, Eastern Time, Trump's global tariffs were ruled illegal by the US International Trade Court (USCIT) and prohibited. The ruling is for "reciprocal tariffs" (including basic tariffs) after April 2 and extends to tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China for reasons of US border security and fentanyl trafficking. Tariffs such as the 301 tariffs on China during Trump 1.0 and 232 tariffs not based on the IEEPA will not be prohibited [6][13]. 2. Trump Administration's Responses - Appeal: The Trump administration has filed an appeal to the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals in Washington, DC, and the case may also go to the Supreme Court [6][17]. - Ignoring the Ruling: The "One Big Beautiful Bill" contains a clause that restricts the use of "contempt of court" by federal judges, but it is likely to be removed in the Senate. Democrats are planning to remove this clause on the grounds of violating the Byrd Rule, and it has little relation to the fiscal budget, so the probability of deletion is high [6][17]. - Invoking Article 122: According to the 1974 Trade Act, the president can impose tariffs of up to 15% within 150 days in the face of a large trade deficit without investigation, but an extension requires congressional legislation [6][22]. - Re - invoking Articles 232 and 301: These require investigations and have relatively limited scope [6][22].