基础化工行业双周报（2025、5、16-2025、5、29）：发改委新闻发布会再提整治“内卷式”竞争-20250530

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to optimize industrial layout and curb the disorderly expansion of backward production capacity, reiterating the need to address "involution" competition [3][28] - The construction scale of projects in the basic chemical sector has decreased by 8.61% year-on-year and 5.03% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a declining willingness for expansion among enterprises [3][28] - The industry is currently at a low point in profitability, and supply is expected to gradually become more rational, with a focus on segments with favorable supply-demand dynamics [3][28] Market Review - As of May 29, 2025, the CITIC basic chemical industry has risen by 0.2% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.44 percentage points, ranking 15th among 30 CITIC industries [10] - The basic chemical industry has increased by 3.54% since the beginning of the month and 3.4% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.2 and 5.34 percentage points respectively [10] Chemical Product Price Trends - The top five chemical products with the highest price increases in the past week include hydrochloric acid (+35.42%), liquid chlorine (+21.85%), formic acid (+6.52%), dichlorophenyl (+6.15%), and nitrogen (+5.36%) [20][21] - The top five products with the largest price declines include methyl chloride (-11.63%), acrylic acid (-9.74%), butadiene (-9.60%), fatty alcohol (-8.40%), and natural rubber (-6.55%) [20][21] Sub-industry Performance - The top five sub-industries with the highest growth over the past two weeks are pesticides (9.4%), polyester (7.25%), rubber additives (6.93%), other plastic products (2.75%), and membrane materials (1.94%) [16] - The bottom five sub-industries with the largest declines are carbon fiber (-8.37%), daily chemicals (-2.82%), chlor-alkali (-2.58%), organic silicon (-2.48%), and fluorine chemicals (-2.31%) [17] Company Recommendations - In the refrigerant sector, the report suggests focusing on Sanmei Co., Ltd. (603379) and Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160) due to the continued rise in long-term contract prices for refrigerants [28] - For the modified plastics sector, it is recommended to pay attention to Kingfa Sci. & Tech. Co., Ltd. (600143) as demand in the home appliance and automotive sectors is expected to improve [28][29] - In the lubricant additive sector, the report highlights the importance of domestic substitution and suggests monitoring Ruifeng New Materials (300910) [29]