LI AUTO(02015) 华创证券·2025-05-30 09:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][18]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 25.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 41% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 650 million yuan, up by 60 million yuan year-on-year, but down by 2.9 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company is advancing its AI strategy, with significant developments expected in the second half of the year, including the launch of new models and AI technologies [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company sold 93,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 41% [7]. - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles slightly declined to 266,000 yuan, down by 36,000 yuan year-on-year and 3,000 yuan quarter-on-quarter [7]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 20.5%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.1 percentage points but an increase of 0.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [7]. - The company’s R&D expense ratio was 9.7%, down by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year and up by 4.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [7]. Sales and Production Outlook - The company is expected to launch new models in the i series, with the first model, i8, set to debut in July 2025, which is anticipated to boost sales [7]. - The total sales forecast for 2025 is 589,000 vehicles, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, with 518,000 from extended-range vehicles and 71,000 from pure electric vehicles [7]. - The report predicts that the company’s monthly sales could reach 70,000 to 80,000 vehicles by the end of the year, driven by new model launches and AI advancements [7]. Valuation and Price Target - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 162.3 billion, 203.3 billion, and 228.3 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 25%, and 12% [8]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period have been revised to 9.6 billion, 13.4 billion, and 15.2 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 22.1, 15.8, and 13.9 [8]. - The target price for the company is set between 122.65 and 147.18 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 13% to 36% based on the closing price on May 29, 2025 [2][8].