Group 1: Aluminum - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Aluminum prices are expected to remain at a high level both in the short and medium term. The intraday operating range is 20,000 - 20,300, and the medium - term operating range is 19,200 - 21,000. The recommended strategy is to sell AL2507 - P - 19300 and hold [1]. - Key Points: - As of May 26, the 5 - location electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 532,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from last week. The inventory is at the lowest level in the same period of the past 5 years, which is positive for aluminum prices [1]. - From January to April, automobile production and sales reached 10.175 million and 10.06 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.9% and 10.8% respectively, which is also positive for aluminum prices [1]. Group 2: Steel (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Steel prices are expected to be weak in the short term and under pressure in the medium term. The recommended strategy is to continue selling call options of ribbed bars RB2510 (exercise price 3300 - 3450) [2]. - Key Points: - The overall inventory pressure of steel raw materials is still large. The 45 - port imported iron ore inventory this week was 138.5879 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.40%, but the low - grade tradable inventory at ports is at a high level in the same period of the past 5 years. With the recovery of overseas shipments in June and active domestic ore production, the supply pressure of iron ore is expected to increase. The sample mine coking coal inventory was 447,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.03% and a year - on - year increase of 63.33%. The coal - washing plant coking coal inventory was 214,740 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.65% and a year - on - year increase of 26.35%, at the highest level in the same period of the past 5 years. The high profitability of blast furnaces may lead to an increase in finished steel supply [2]. - The downstream consumption of steel is still poor. For steel plates, although the US tariff on Chinese exports has been temporarily reduced to 30%, export orders are still average. For building materials, due to poor project fund availability and heavy rainfall in the south, construction progress is slow, and the consumption of building steel this week was 334,780 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.06%. The weak demand for building materials is the main reason for the overall weaker consumption of the five major steel products compared to previous years [2][3].
金属及新能源材料板块品种:铝
Guang Jin Qi Huo·2025-05-30 09:37