金融行业双周报（2025/5/16-2025/5/29）：存贷款非对称降息落地，国有行一年定期跌破 1%-20250530

Investment Ratings - Banking: Overweight (Maintain) [1] - Securities: Market Weight (Maintain) [1] - Insurance: Overweight (Maintain) [4] Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to maintain stable performance despite external uncertainties, benefiting from policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and fiscal support, making it a strong defensive investment choice [5][46] - The securities sector is currently experiencing a period of adjustment, with a valuation of 1.35, indicating potential for recovery as external conditions improve and capital market reforms continue [5][49] - The insurance sector is seeing increased equity investments, with significant growth in stock holdings and long-term equity investments, driven by regulatory support for insurance capital market participation [50] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of May 29, 2025, the banking, securities, and insurance indices have shown declines of -0.93%, -2.93%, and -1.10% respectively, while the CSI 300 index decreased by -1.24% [13] - Notable performers include Su Nong Bank (+6.33%), Xiangcai Securities (+1.11%), and China Pacific Insurance (+1.82%) [13] Valuation Situation - The banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio is 0.68, with state-owned banks at 0.69, joint-stock banks at 0.63, city commercial banks at 0.72, and rural commercial banks at 0.64 [23] - The securities sector's PB ratio is at 1.35, positioned at the 33.84% percentile over the past five years, indicating room for valuation recovery [26] Recent Market Indicators - As of May 29, 2025, the one-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate is 2.0%, with the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [32] - The average daily trading volume in A-shares is 11,387.53 billion, reflecting a decrease of 7.58% week-on-week [35] Industry News - In Q1 2025, commercial banks achieved a net profit of 656.8 billion, with an average capital return rate of 8.82% [41] - The financial regulatory authority announced measures to support insurance capital market participation, including expanding long-term investment pilot programs [50] Company Announcements - Notable stock performance includes Chengdu Bank, Ningbo Bank, and China Merchants Bank, which are recommended for investment due to their strong regional performance and stability [47] - In the securities sector, firms like Zheshang Securities and Guolian Minsheng are highlighted for their potential restructuring opportunities [49]