供给端扰动，建议关注氯虫苯甲酰胺

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][8]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the significant price drop of Chlorantraniliprole, the world's leading insecticide, after its patent expiration, leading to increased competition and a price decline from 2.5 million yuan/ton to approximately 210,000 yuan/ton, a reduction of 90% [4]. - Due to supply disruptions from an explosion at Shandong Youdao Chemical Co., the supply of Chlorantraniliprole may tighten, potentially leading to a price increase in the near future [4][5]. - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Lier Chemical, Hongtai Sun, and Huailong Co. for potential investment opportunities due to the expected price recovery in the industry [4][5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report indicates a market performance trend with a range from -26% to +26% for the basic chemical industry compared to the CSI 300 index from May 2024 to May 2025 [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic production capacity of Chlorantraniliprole is approximately 27,200 tons/year, with Shandong Youdao holding a 40.4% market share [4]. - The report notes that the main application markets for Chlorantraniliprole include Brazil (36%), India (20%), and the USA (12%), indicating strong overseas demand [4]. Price Trends - The price of Chlorantraniliprole has dropped from 430,000 yuan/ton in 2023 to 225,000 yuan/ton, currently at a historical low [4]. - The report anticipates a potential price increase due to supply constraints following the incident at Shandong Youdao [4]. Regulatory Environment - There is an increased regulatory focus on nitro and diazotization enterprises, which may impact the supply of key raw materials like K-amine, essential for producing Chlorantraniliprole [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in the production of alternative insecticides such as Indoxacarb and Abamectin, as well as monitoring the agricultural chemical sector for signs of recovery [5].