人形机器人深度研究系列八：谐波减速器：差齿传动，持续进化

Investment Rating - The report suggests a strong investment outlook for the humanoid robot industry, indicating a potential supply-demand gap for harmonic reducers by 2027, with a recommendation for companies that can establish early connections with leading clients, especially overseas [2][4]. Core Insights - The harmonic reducer industry is characterized by high technical barriers, primarily in gear design, material preparation, precision processing, and equipment. The leading overseas company, Harmonic Drive, excels in performance metrics compared to domestic manufacturers [2][17]. - The humanoid robot market is expected to experience explosive growth, with global humanoid sales projected to exceed 500,000 units by 2027, leading to a demand for 6 million harmonic reducers, alongside traditional demand totaling 8.8 million units [2][42]. - The competitive landscape is rapidly evolving, with domestic manufacturers increasingly capturing the incremental demand for humanoid robots. Companies with strong manufacturing capabilities and technological foundations are expected to thrive [2][4]. Summary by Sections PART 1: Design, Materials, Process, and Equipment Create High Barriers for Harmonic Reducers - The harmonic reducer's high barriers stem from the complexity of gear design, material purity, and precision manufacturing processes, which are heavily reliant on imported equipment [2][21]. - Key performance indicators for harmonic reducers include lifespan, transmission precision, efficiency, stiffness, temperature rise, and noise levels, with Harmonic Drive leading the industry [17][18]. PART 2: Humanoid Robots Drive Explosive Demand for Harmonic Reducers - The traditional industrial sector is stable, with an expected demand of approximately 2 million units in 2024, while humanoid robots are projected to significantly increase harmonic reducer demand [2][42]. - The global market for harmonic reducers is anticipated to reach nearly 20 billion in the long term, driven by the surge in humanoid robot production [2][4]. PART 3: Deep Binding with Overseas Humanoid Clients, Broad Growth Space - The report highlights the importance of establishing relationships with overseas clients, as these partnerships can lead to significant revenue growth for domestic manufacturers [2][4]. - The pricing of mainstream harmonic reducers is expected to decline slightly, with cost reduction opportunities remaining substantial due to the high manufacturing cost structure [2][4]. PART 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Lide Harmonic (leading domestic player with rapid overseas client engagement), Keda Li (strong engineering capabilities), and others that show potential in the evolving market landscape [2][4].