LI AUTO(02015) 平安证券·2025-05-30 10:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1][6]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 25.9 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 1.1%, and a net profit of 0.65 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 9.4% [3][5]. - The company is expected to increase its pure electric vehicle offerings in the second half of the year, with the launch of two new models, i8 and i6, anticipated to drive growth [5][6]. - The successful launch of MEGA Home has exceeded expectations, contributing positively to the company's outlook for new electric vehicle models [5][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecasts: Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 169.22 billion yuan, 230.91 billion yuan, and 271.86 billion yuan, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 17.1%, 36.5%, and 17.7% [4][10]. - Net Profit Forecasts: Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 10.73 billion yuan, 17.4 billion yuan, and 22.62 billion yuan, with year-over-year growth rates of 33.5%, 62.2%, and 30.0% [4][10]. - Profitability Ratios: The company is projected to maintain a gross margin of around 20.8% in 2025, with a net margin of 6.3% [4][10]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): The diluted EPS is expected to be 5.01 yuan in 2025, increasing to 10.57 yuan by 2027 [4][10]. Operational Insights - The company achieved a stable gross margin of 19.8% in Q1 2025 despite a slight decline in average selling price (ASP) per vehicle [5]. - Cost control measures have led to a reduction in R&D and sales management expenses, contributing to a positive operating profit in Q1 2025 [5][6]. - The company plans to enhance its production capacity, aiming for a monthly delivery rate of 2,500 to 3,000 units by July [5].