Huachuang Securities·2025-05-30 10:20Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][18]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 25.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 41% [2]. - The company is making steady progress in its AI initiatives, with significant upgrades to its vehicle models and a focus on enhancing its competitive position in the high-end SUV market [2][7]. - The anticipated launch of new electric models and advancements in AI technology are expected to drive sales growth in the latter half of the year, with total sales projected to reach 589,000 units for the year, a year-on-year increase of 18% [2][7]. Financial Summary - The company reported a net profit of 650 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 60 million yuan, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.9 billion yuan [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles slightly declined to 266,000 yuan, down 36,000 yuan year-on-year and 3,000 yuan quarter-on-quarter [7]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 20.5%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.1 percentage points but an increase of 0.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [7]. Sales and Production Outlook - The company aims to achieve monthly sales of 50,000 to 60,000 units for its L series in the second half of the year, supported by new product launches and AI advancements [7]. - The total sales forecast for 2025 is set at 589,000 units, with 518,000 units from range-extended vehicles and 71,000 units from pure electric vehicles [7]. Valuation and Price Target - The report adjusts the revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected revenues of 162.3 billion yuan, 203.3 billion yuan, and 228.3 billion yuan, respectively [8]. - The net profit estimates for the same period are revised to 9.6 billion yuan, 13.4 billion yuan, and 15.2 billion yuan, respectively [8]. - The target price for the company's stock is set between 122.65 and 147.18 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 13% to 36% from the current price [2][7].