EIA周度报告点评-20250530

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an EIA weekly data report, indicating that peak - season stocking drives demand up but fails to reverse the downward trend [1] Group 2: Main Data - As of May 23, US commercial crude oil inventory was 440.363 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.795 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 0.118 million barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 75 thousand barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 820 thousand barrels [2][3] - Gasoline inventory decreased by 2.441 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 0.5 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 0.724 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 0.5 million barrels [2][3] - US crude oil production increased from 13.392 million barrels per day to 13.401 million barrels per day; net imports decreased by 532 thousand barrels per day; processing volume decreased by 162 thousand barrels per day [3] - US crude oil terminal apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased by 272 thousand barrels per day; gasoline apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased by 88.5 thousand barrels per day; distillate apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased by 85.75 thousand barrels per day; jet fuel apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased by 57.75 thousand barrels per day [3] Group 3: Report Comments - Last week, the unexpected decline in US commercial crude oil inventory was mainly due to reduced net imports. This week, the sluggish US crude oil exports improved, and imports increased week - on - week, leading to the inventory decline. The weekly refinery utilization rate ended a five - week increase, decreasing by 0.5% to 90.2% [4] - The EIA report this week is bullish as both crude oil and refined product inventories are lower than expected, and peak - season stocking is reflected in the implied demand data. However, whether the stocking can remain strong depends on actual terminal demand. The US consumer confidence index has been falling for months [6] - Yesterday, oil prices fell because the US government's appeal allowed a previously blocked tariff policy to continue, and tonight's OPEC + eight - nation meeting may push for accelerated production in July. The EIA weekly data can only briefly slow down the downward trend [6] - Memorial Day on Monday this week is the start of the traditional peak demand season in the US. In the report as of last Friday, fuel demand generally rebounded, showing that mid - tier nodes such as gas stations stocked up in advance, leading to refined product inventories being generally lower than expected [8]