瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-20250530

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic methanol market price continued to decline. Without clear positive news, the offer price of butadiene rubber was significantly reduced, but actual orders still had to be sold at a loss. [7] - Recently, the output of restored methanol production capacity in China was more than that of overhauled and reduced production capacity, leading to a slight increase in overall output. Affected by weak demand, enterprises had difficulty in signing orders, and the inventory of inland enterprises increased this week. [7] - This week, foreign vessels unloaded goods intensively, causing the methanol port inventory to stop falling and rebound. The提货 in Jiangsu increased significantly, with limited inventory accumulation; the demand in Zhejiang was stable, and inventory accumulated under the supply of many foreign vessel unloading; the inventory in South China ports decreased slightly. [7] - In terms of demand, Sierbang resumed full - load operation, and the operating load of northwest enterprises' devices was slightly adjusted. This week, the operating rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry continued to increase. [7] - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2170 - 2240 in the short term. [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: As of May 29, the mainstream price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market was around 11,450 yuan/ton, with actual orders subject to negotiation. [7] - Market Outlook: The overall methanol output increased slightly. The inventory of inland enterprises and port inventory changed as described above. The operating rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry increased. [7] - Strategy Suggestion: The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2170 and 2240 in the short term. [7] 3.2. Futures Market - Price Trend: This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 0.63%. [11] - Inter - period Spread: As of May 30, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 67. [15] - Position Analysis: As of May 29, there were 1600 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 4397 compared to last week. [23] 3.3. Spot Market - Domestic Spot Price: As of May 30, the mainstream price in the East China Taicang area was 2260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in the Northwest Inner Mongolia area was 1885 yuan/ton, a decrease of 145 yuan/ton from last week. The spread between East China and the Northwest was 375 yuan/ton, an increase of 102.5 yuan/ton from last week. [27] - Foreign Spot Price: As of May 29, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 256 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton from last week. The spread between Southeast Asian methanol and the main Chinese port was 71 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from last week. [32] - Basis: As of May 30, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 52 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from last week. [36] 3.4. Industrial Chain - Upstream: As of May 28, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of May 29, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.54 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.25 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week. [39] - Industry: As of May 29, China's methanol output was 1,966,685 tons, an increase of 5090 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 87.19%, a month - on - month increase of 0.22%. As of May 28, the total methanol port inventory in China was 523,000 tons, an increase of 32,600 tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 355,000 tons, an increase of 18,900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5.64%. The orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 249,900 tons, an increase of 14,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 6.24%. In April 2025, China's methanol import volume was 787,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 66.53%; from January to April 2025, the cumulative methanol import volume was 2.8648 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.49%. As of May 29, the methanol import profit was 0.47 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39.99 yuan/ton from last week. [42][47][50] - Downstream: As of May 29, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins devices was 85.19%, a month - on - month increase of 1.35%. As of May 30, the domestic methanol - to - olefins disk profit was - 549 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton from last week. [53][56]