原油月报：宏观情绪改善短期提振油价-20250530

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry is "Stronger than the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Macro - sentiment improvement will boost oil prices in the short term, but OPEC+ production increases will still suppress medium - to long - term oil prices. OPEC+ production increase rhythm is advancing, and there are still concerns about an oversupply in the crude oil fundamentals [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Oil Price Review - In May 2025, international oil prices first fluctuated higher and then stabilized. Key influencing events included OPEC+ agreeing to continue increasing production by 411,000 barrels per day in June on May 3, the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks in Geneva from May 10 - 11, and the Iranian deputy foreign minister's statement on May 19 about the nuclear negotiation with the US [4] International Oil Price Outlook - Institutional Forecast: Oil production growth exceeds demand growth. EIA expects that inventory increases will cause the average Brent crude oil price to drop to $62 per barrel in the second half of 2025 and $59 per barrel in 2026 [8] - This Report's Forecast: US commercial crude oil and refined oil inventories are accumulating. After the US summer travel season starts at the end of May, gasoline and jet fuel demand may pick up. European industrial demand is weak. China's crude oil production increased in April 2025, while processing volume decreased. The report expects that Brent oil prices will have some support at $60 per barrel in Q2 2025, but the oil price outlook is bearish in the medium term due to OPEC+ production increases [8][52] OPEC Analysis - Overall Production Plan: In April 2025, OPEC 12 - country crude oil production was 26,712 thousand barrels per day, a decrease of 61 thousand barrels per day month - on - month. OPEC+ (excluding quota - free countries) production was 35,461 thousand barrels per day, a decrease of 25 thousand barrels per day. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 412,000 barrels per day in June, and some over - producing countries have compensation - based production cut plans, so short - term supply is stable [9] - Non - OPEC DoC Production: In April 2025, Non - OPEC DoC crude oil production was 14,205 thousand barrels per day, a decrease of 43 thousand barrels per day month - on - month, mainly due to a 41 - thousand - barrel - per - day decrease in Kazakhstan's production. Non - DoC countries' production is expected to increase in 2025 and 2026, mainly driven by the US, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina [18] - Drilling Activity: In April 2025, the global total number of drilling rigs was 1,687, a significant decrease of 70 month - on - month. Canada's oil rig count decreased by 56, mainly due to seasonal factors, while the US oil rig count decreased by 6. US new well - drilling numbers remained unchanged, completed well numbers declined, and inventory well numbers increased slightly [24] - Global Oil Demand Forecast: OPEC slightly lowered its global oil demand forecast for 2025 - 2026. In 2025, global oil demand is expected to be 105.0 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day year - on - year. In 2026, it is expected to be 106.3 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.28 million barrels per day year - on - year [25] EIA Analysis - Inventory Forecast: EIA expects that from Q2 2025, global crude oil will experience significant inventory accumulation. In 2025, the supply - demand gap is expected to be +420,000 barrels per day, and in 2026, it is expected to be +820,000 barrels per day [28] - Supply Increment: OPEC+ will gradually exit the voluntary production cut agreement, and production will resume growth. The US, Canada, and other American countries will contribute to supply growth in the forecast period [32] - Demand Forecast: EIA forecasts that in 2025, global oil demand will be 103.71 million barrels per day, an increase of 970,000 barrels per day year - on - year; in 2026, it will be 104.61 million barrels per day, an increase of 900,000 barrels per day year - on - year. China and India are the main sources of global oil consumption growth [35] IEA Analysis - Supply Forecast: Non - OPEC+ producers' production is expected to continue to increase significantly. In 2025, global oil supply is expected to increase by about 1.6 million barrels per day year - on - year, and in 2026, it will increase by 970,000 barrels per day year - on - year [36] - Demand Forecast: The growth rate of global oil demand is expected to decline. In 2025, it is expected to increase by 740,000 barrels per day year - on - year, and in 2026, it is expected to increase by 760,000 barrels per day year - on - year. Emerging economies are the main driving force for growth [40] Investment Suggestion - The report expects that Brent oil prices will have support at $60 per barrel in Q2 2025, but the medium - term oil price outlook is bearish. It is recommended to pay attention to leading domestic oil companies such as PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, Offshore Oil Engineering, and CNOOC Energy Technology & Services [52]