海外航空市场25Q1景气度跟踪：全球航空业迈入常态化阶段，机遇与挑战并存

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook for the aviation sector, highlighting strong supply and demand dynamics, and suggests continued investment in the sector [3][85]. Core Insights - The global aviation market is entering a normalization phase with a growth rate slowdown, as evidenced by a 5.3% year-on-year increase in global passenger turnover (RPK) in Q1 2025, with international RPK growing by 7.7% and domestic RPK by 1.4% [3][5]. - The report indicates that the passenger demand is outpacing capacity growth, leading to an increase in market load factor to 81.2%, up by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [3][5]. - In the U.S. market, domestic leisure demand is weak, and economic uncertainties are increasing operational pressures, with major airlines facing varying degrees of profitability [29][49]. - The European aviation market shows growth in capacity and passenger volume, with ticket prices increasing year-on-year, indicating a recovery trend [60][69]. - In Asia, key markets are experiencing a resurgence in passenger traffic, with airports in Southeast Asia and Japan surpassing pre-pandemic levels [75][78]. Summary by Sections Global Aviation Market Overview - The global aviation market is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with Q1 2025 showing a 5.3% increase in RPK and a 4.9% increase in capacity (ASK) [3][5]. - The market load factor has improved, reflecting stronger demand relative to capacity [3][5]. U.S. Aviation Market Tracking - U.S. airlines reported a mixed performance in Q1 2025, with Delta and United Airlines showing profitability while American Airlines and Southwest Airlines faced losses [29][49]. - The average ticket prices in the U.S. have declined compared to previous years, impacting revenue [33][34]. European Aviation Market Tracking - The European aviation market has seen a 4.6% year-on-year increase in passenger volume in early 2025, with ticket prices showing positive growth [57][60]. - Major airlines in Europe are optimistic about profitability improvements due to rising demand and operational efficiencies [69][72]. Asian Aviation Market Tracking - Key Asian markets are witnessing a recovery in passenger traffic, with significant growth reported in Southeast Asia and Japan [75][78]. - Major transit airports in the region are recovering well, with some exceeding pre-pandemic traffic levels [78]. Investment Analysis - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring oil prices and operational efficiencies as key factors influencing airline profitability [85]. - It recommends focusing on airlines with strong recovery potential and suggests investment in aircraft leasing companies and maintenance service providers [85].