民机行业点评:困局、破局、新局--从美国“关税战”看我国民机产业的历史性机遇

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The ongoing US-China trade conflict, particularly the "tariff war," presents both challenges and opportunities for China's civil aviation industry, as it faces dual pressures from developed countries' manufacturing return and developing countries' manufacturing diversion [1][2]. - The global civil aviation industry is experiencing significant supply chain pressures due to the "tariff war," affecting major players like Boeing and Airbus differently, with Boeing facing more substantial impacts [6][39]. - The "tariff war" is seen as a double-edged sword for China's large aircraft industry, potentially increasing costs and supply chain disruptions while simultaneously providing unprecedented opportunities for domestic aircraft development and supply chain autonomy [7][10]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Impact of the "Tariff War" on Global Civil Aviation - The global supply chain for aircraft manufacturing is highly integrated, with significant reliance on international suppliers, as exemplified by Boeing's 787 program, where nearly 70% of systems and components are sourced globally [1][29]. - The complexity of the supply chain has led to increased risks, including quality management challenges and delivery delays, which are exacerbated by the current trade tensions [2][6]. Section 2: Opportunities for China's Civil Aviation Industry - The "tariff war" may accelerate the domestic replacement process in China's large aircraft sector, pushing for greater self-sufficiency and innovation in key technologies [10][11]. - The C919 aircraft has achieved a domestic production rate of 60%, indicating progress in reducing reliance on foreign suppliers [8][10]. Section 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - China's large aircraft supply chain is characterized by a unique combination of globalization and self-sufficiency, which positions it well to navigate the current challenges [15][16]. - The report highlights the varying degrees of domestic replacement across different segments of the supply chain, with metal components largely produced domestically while composite materials still rely on imports [13][16]. Section 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the "tariff war" will lead to a shift in market dynamics, with domestic airlines potentially increasing their procurement of Chinese-made aircraft as costs for foreign aircraft rise [12][39]. - The long-term outlook suggests that the pressures from the "tariff war" will catalyze advancements in China's civil aviation industry, enhancing its competitiveness in both domestic and international markets [10][11].