Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating for Xintian Green Energy (00956.HK) with a target price of HKD 6.2, representing a potential upside of approximately 48% from the current price of HKD 4.2 [2][11]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the company's first-mover advantage in the offshore wind sector in Hebei and its potential for growth amid the rising marine economy. It highlights the company's high dividend yield and the attractiveness of its stock in the Hong Kong market [5][6][10]. Financial Performance Summary - 2024A Financials: Total revenue is projected at HKD 21,372 million, with a year-on-year growth of 5.38%. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be HKD 1,661 million, reflecting a decline of 22.90% [1]. - 2025E Financials: Revenue is forecasted to increase to HKD 25,564 million, a growth of 19.61%, with net profit rising to HKD 2,425 million, a growth of 46.01% [1]. - 2026E Financials: Expected revenue of HKD 30,621 million, with a growth of 19.78%, and net profit of HKD 3,073 million, a growth of 26.76% [1]. - 2027E Financials: Revenue projected at HKD 39,931 million, with a significant growth of 30.40%, and net profit of HKD 3,481 million, a growth of 13.26% [1]. Short-term Outlook - The company faced performance pressure in 2024 due to unfavorable weather conditions and asset impairments. However, the stock option incentive plan is expected to drive optimism for 2025, with a net profit target of approximately HKD 2.8 billion [7][47]. Long-term Growth Potential - The company holds a significant first-mover advantage in offshore wind projects in Hebei, having secured 1 million kW of the 1.8 million kW planned for the province. The marine economy's growth is anticipated to benefit the company significantly [8][59]. - The company has a robust project reserve, including approximately 3 GW of gas-fired power and 1 GW of offshore wind projects under construction, which supports long-term growth [9][10]. Dividend Yield - The report projects a dividend payout ratio of approximately 52.81% for 2024, with a potential dividend yield reaching nearly 9% under optimistic scenarios, making it attractive for investors [10][30].
新天绿色能源（00956）：海风巡礼系列4之河北篇：河北海风龙头，看好公司增长弹性