2025年4月数据点评：煤炭供需格局改善，旺季驱动煤价上涨

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal supply-demand pattern is improving, driven by seasonal demand, which is expected to lead to a rebound in coal prices. The report anticipates a decline in coal supply after May, with demand likely to continue improving. Policy initiatives and fundamentals are expected to resonate, suggesting that coal prices may have bottomed out and are poised for recovery [4][6]. Industry Market Performance - As of May 24, the coal industry index rose by 4.15% for the month, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 2.96%. However, year-to-date, the coal sector has declined by 10.87%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 9.53 percentage points [11][12]. - The coal industry's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 12.03, which is ranked 27th among 30 sectors, indicating a slight increase from the previous month [11]. Supply and Demand Situation - From January to May 2025, the average daily sales of the top 20 coal groups were 6.841 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. In May, the average daily sales dropped to 6.677 million tons, down 5.9% year-on-year [26][27]. - National coal production from January to April 2025 reached 1.58 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. In April alone, production was 390 million tons, up 3.8% year-on-year [40][41]. - Coal imports from January to April 2025 totaled 150 million tons, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year. In April, imports were 37.83 million tons, down 16.4% year-on-year [43][44]. Monthly Coal Consumption Data - National coal consumption from January to April 2025 was 1.66 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. In April, consumption was 390 million tons, up 0.7% year-on-year [55][56]. - The electricity sector consumed 940 million tons of coal from January to April, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year. In April, consumption was 200 million tons, down 1.7% year-on-year [58][56]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend coal companies, particularly thermal coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others. It also highlights coking coal companies like Huaibei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal, as well as coking companies with improved profits [4].