欧盟碳市场行情简报（2025年第91期）-20250530

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Quotes Briefing (Issue No. 91, 2025) [1] Report Date - 2025-05-30 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - TTF dropped significantly, and EUA followed weakly [2] - Short-term: Neutral to bullish; Medium-term: Oscillation range of €67 - 75 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Primary Market: The auction price and bid coverage ratio are not available [2] - Secondary Market: EUA futures settled at 70.94 euros/ton (-1.57%), with a trading volume of 24,700 lots (0.05) [2] Strategy - Short-term outlook is neutral to bullish, while the medium-term shows an oscillation range between €67 and €75 [2] Core Logic - Likely Positive Factors: German Economy Minister urges the EU Commission to approve electricity subsidies for German energy-intensive enterprises [2] - Likely Negative Factors: Thursday is a public holiday in most EU countries, potentially leading to weak buyer demand; The US Federal Appellate Court temporarily halted the ruling to enforce a tariff administrative order [2][3] Charts - Chart 1: EU Emission Allowance (EUA) latest auction market information, including auction volume, price, CBAM certificate price, bid coverage ratio, and auction revenue [4] - Chart 2: EUA auction price trend - Seasonal chart [4] - Chart 3: EUA auction bid coverage ratio - Seasonal chart [4] - Chart 4: EU Emission Allowance (EUA) market information - Futures and spot, including futures settlement price, trading volume, open interest, spot settlement price, trading volume, shipping carbon cost, and freight ratio [5] - Chart 5: EUA futures and spot prices and basis [5] - Chart 6: December contract open interest - Seasonal chart [5]