国投期货农产品日报-20250530

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean粕: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Bean oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed oil: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall trend of the agricultural products market is complex, with different products showing various price trends and facing different supply - demand situations and influencing factors such as weather, policies, and market sentiment [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean (Bean one) - Domestic soybean positions are reduced, and the downward trend slows. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans narrows, with domestic soybean prices weaker. The domestic supply of imported soybeans is abundant from May to July due to large - scale arrivals of Brazilian soybeans. The medium - term price of US soybeans is affected by weather and is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. Domestic soybeans are entering the planting season, and weather will drive price fluctuations [2] Soybean & Bean粕 - The US government's request for administrative suspension is approved. Dalian bean粕 futures rise slightly with reduced positions. Domestic bean粕 spot prices are stable, and trading is dull. The domestic soybean supply is overly loose, with high oil - mill operating rates and large crushing volumes. Demand is cautious, oil - mill bean粕 inventories are rising, and the spot basis is weakening. The bean粕 market lacks a continuous upward drive and may continue to decline in a volatile manner [3] Bean oil & Palm oil - The domestic market shows a situation of weak oil and strong粕. Palm oil positions are significantly reduced, and prices correct. The US bean oil market is worried about the impact of biodiesel small - refinery exemption policies on demand. The medium - term overseas soybean market is driven by weather, and domestic oil futures are expected to follow the US soybean market. The domestic soybean spot market faces pressure from large - scale arrivals from May to July, and the arrival of 24 - degree palm oil in May - June also increases compared to the previous period. Overseas palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle in the second and third quarters. Overall, bean and palm oil are expected to maintain a range - bound trend [4] Rapeseed meal & Rapeseed oil - The rapeseed market shows a pattern of strong粕 and weak oil, with both main - contract positions continuing to decline. The domestic rapeseed inventory is still high, but the inventory pressure is not as severe as the data shows due to unclear domestic and export proportions. Aquatic product prices are higher than last year, feed costs are down, and aquaculture profits are expected to improve, so the demand for aquatic feed is promising. The old - crop Canadian rapeseed season is ending, with good crushing and exports, and limited export availability due to tight old - crop inventories. About 70% - 80% of the new - crop Canadian rapeseed has been sown, and weather is the key variable in the next two months. The rapeseed trade is still uncertain, and the crop fundamentals are notable. A bullish view on rapeseed futures is maintained, and the pattern of strong粕 and weak oil is expected to continue [6] Corn - The main - contract corn futures reduce positions by more than 50,000 lots, and prices rise as main - force funds seek to avoid risks before the holiday. The expectation of new - season wheat production reduction weakens, and some feed enterprises start to substitute orderly. Northeast corn spot prices are flat, with a price inversion between the north and the south. The purchasing power of deep - processing enterprises is weakening, with lower operating rates and rising profits, and they have a certain amount of corn inventory. Feed enterprises have rigid demand but are highly cautious. The supply of circulating corn is increasing, and the market is expected to be volatile and slightly weak in the next stage [7] Pig - The main - contract pig futures are in narrow - range consolidation, and far - month contracts continue to rebound. Affected by policy factors, pig - breeding stocks and futures prices are relatively strong today. The far - month contracts are in a valuation - repair state. However, the industry still faces pressure from accelerated weight - reduction and early - slaughter, and there is still room for the spot price to fall. Attention should be paid to the downward pressure on the futures market from the falling spot price [8] Egg - The egg futures market rebounds with reduced positions, while the spot price drops across the country. After a continuous and rapid decline, there is a phenomenon of capital withdrawal in the short term. Short - sellers can exit to avoid risks. The slaughter of old hens has increased slightly but not significantly. With the arrival of the plum - rain season in June in the south, egg prices may continue to decline, and caution is needed when going long on peak - season contracts at low prices [9]