PVC月报：基本面预期偏弱，弱势寻底-20250530

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The fundamental outlook for PVC is weak, and the market is in a downward trend seeking a bottom. Although there has been a marginal improvement in the fundamentals with a decent inventory reduction rate recently and the absolute price is at a low - valuation level, there is still significant pressure due to high production rates and weak domestic demand. Without a halt in the decline of the cost side and large - scale production cuts by upstream producers, it is difficult for the market to stage a strong rebound. The previous short positions can be held, and attention should be paid to capital dynamics and device changes [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In May, the V2509 contract fluctuated between 4700 and 5057, first falling and then rising, with the center of gravity continuing to move down. On May 15, driven by the expectation of tariff - induced pre - export, the contract reached a monthly high of 5057 but failed to fill the gap after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. Due to weak fundamental expectations and cost collapse, the contract continued to decline after the rebound, and on May 29, it broke through the previous low, reaching 4700, only 6.8% away from the historical low [3]. - The weighted monthly line has seen four consecutive negative candles, and the 09 contract has had eight consecutive negative candles. The absolute price is at the bottom, the basis is relatively strong year - on - year, the 9 - 1 spread is biased towards positive arbitrage, and the term structure maintains a Contango structure. The open interest of the 09 contract has exceeded 1 million lots, and attention should be paid to capital dynamics [5]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Situation - Domestic Macroeconomics: In April, the PMI decreased by 1.5 percentage points month - on - month. The profits of manufacturing enterprises have marginally improved, but the PPI has been in negative territory for 31 consecutive months. From January to April, the decline in real estate completion area has widened, the area of commercial housing under construction is weak year - on - year, and the decline in the price index has narrowed [23]. - Demand: Terminal real estate data remains weak. From January to April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year changes in new construction, construction, completion, and commercial housing sales areas of real estate were - 23.8%, - 9.7%, - 16.9%, and - 2.8% respectively. The decline in new construction and sales areas has narrowed, while the decline in construction and completion areas has widened [33]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance - Supply: In the first quarter, Xinpu Chemical added 500,000 tons of new production capacity. In the second quarter, attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of multiple sets of devices such as those of Qingdao Bay and Wanhua. In June, a total of 900,000 tons of new devices from Qingdao Bay, Jiahua Energy, and Wanhua Fujian are planned to be put into production. The capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to increase, and the maintenance intensity in June is insufficient, with only a total of 2.41 million tons of devices from Wanhua, Qilu, etc. having maintenance plans [38][41][46]. - Demand: Domestic Demand: The downstream operating rate is at a low level year - on - year. The real estate price has not stopped falling, the high - frequency transaction data of commercial housing is at a low level year - on - year, and the rainy season is unfavorable for terminal construction, resulting in weak demand for pipes and profiles. External Demand: From January to April 2025, the cumulative domestic PVC exports reached 1.34 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 54%. However, with the approaching of the BIS certification on June 24, exports may face pressure based on previous experience [50][55]. - Inventory: The inventories of the upper and middle reaches continue to decline. The basis has strengthened, and the warehouse receipts have begun to gradually decrease [58][60]. - Cost and Profit: The cost of electricity, the largest cost for chlor - alkali enterprises, has continued to decline due to the continuous fall in the coal market. Coupled with the overall firm price of the co - product caustic soda, the dynamic cost center of enterprises has continued to move down, and the integrated profit has improved compared with last year, resulting in insufficient motivation for unexpected production cuts [4]. 3.4 Future Outlook - The fundamental outlook remains weak, and the market is in a downward trend seeking a bottom. Although the recent inventory reduction rate in the social inventory is decent, the fundamentals have marginally improved, and the absolute price is at a low - valuation level, there is still significant pressure due to high production rates and weak domestic demand. There is no obvious upward driving force in the fundamentals. Without a halt in the decline of the cost side and large - scale production cuts by upstream producers, it is difficult for the market to stage a strong rebound. The previous short positions can be held, and attention should be paid to capital dynamics and device changes. The V2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4600 and 4950 [4].