生猪月报：去库压力依旧维持，偏空格局下猪价偏弱运行-20250530

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The current pig market is in a bearish pattern, with increasing inventory reduction pressure on the spot side. Short - term consumption support is insufficient to reverse the price trend. One should be vigilant about the risk of price decline after the Dragon Boat Festival. The recommended strategy is to mainly short on rallies for contracts in July, September, and November, and pay attention to the opportunity of the September - November reverse spread [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Performance - Live Pig Spot Price: This week, the national average live pig price increased by 0.06 yuan to 14.47 yuan/kg. Prices in Henan, Yunnan, Shanxi, and Sichuan increased, while that in Chongqing remained stable [3][12]. - Sow Spot Price: The average spot price of culled sows in sample breeding enterprises decreased by 0.12 yuan to 10.67 yuan/kg. The average spot price of 50 - kg binary sows remained flat at 1,641.43 yuan/head. The market was weak with low trading enthusiasm [3][14]. - Piglet Spot Price: The piglet market showed a hidden decline. The average出栏 price of 7 - kg piglets decreased by 6.91 yuan to 503.57 yuan/head, while that of 15 - kg piglets increased by 12.86 yuan to 572.15 yuan/head [3][16]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Performance - Short - term Supply: In the short term, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has decreased, and some areas have shifted from active inventory replenishment to inventory reduction. The increase in the theoretical market supply of commercial pigs from April to June 2025 will slow down. The average slaughter weight of live pigs remained stable at 124.13 kg. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms in May and June is expected to increase [4][23]. - Medium - term Supply: From January to April, the number of newly born piglets increased. In April, the number of newly born piglets, the survival rate of piglets, and the average number of healthy piglets per litter all increased, extending the pressure of market supply in the third quarter [4]. - Long - term Supply: In April, the inventory of reproductive sows decreased by 10,000 heads, but no inflection point in far - month production capacity was indicated. The proportion of ternary and binary reproductive sows remained unchanged, and the culling volume of reproductive sows decreased [4][31]. - Demand: During the Dragon Boat Festival, the market demand in some areas is expected to increase, but the increase is limited. After the festival, the market may return to the off - season, and demand is likely to decline [4][36]. 3.3 Cost and Profit Analysis - Cost: The cost of purchasing piglets increased by 53.72 yuan to 1,735.94 yuan/head, while the cost of self - breeding and self - raising decreased by 2.03 yuan to 1,615.93 yuan/head. The prices of corn and soybean meal decreased slightly [40][42]. - Profit: The self - raising profit of live pigs decreased to 103.93 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets increased to 51.31 yuan/head. The slaughter profit decreased to - 20.1 yuan/head [44]. 3.4 Other Key Data - Pig - Grain Ratio: The national pig - grain ratio decreased by 0.13 to 5.98, and the piglet feed - to - meat ratio in April remained stable at 2.8 [47]. - Frozen Product Inventory: The frozen product storage rate of key slaughtering enterprises remained at 17.28%, with limited inventory fluctuations [34].