如何配银行能战胜基准？历史复盘和超额归因——银行配置策略报告系列二

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for bank stock allocation, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the historical performance of bank stocks, highlighting their ability to generate excess returns during stable or declining economic periods, while also noting their relative underperformance during economic upturns [11][13]. - Bank stocks are characterized as long-term investment champions, with average annualized returns of 12.58% over the past 20 years, ranking third among all sectors [34]. - The report identifies stable Return on Equity (ROE) and dividends as key sources of bank stock returns, with current industry ROE remaining above 9% despite a decline in net interest margins [38][45]. Summary by Sections 1. Historical Review of Bank Stocks - The absolute returns of bank stocks are influenced by macroeconomic conditions and liquidity, with positive returns during economic growth and loose liquidity, and negative returns during economic downturns [11]. - Over the past 20 years, bank stocks have achieved excess returns in 14 out of those years, particularly during periods of market volatility [11][13]. 2. Sources of Bank Stock Returns - Bank stocks are noted for their stable ROE and dividends, with a significant portion of returns derived from economic growth options [34]. - The average annualized return for bank stocks over the past 20 years is 12.58%, with the sector consistently outperforming the broader market in various holding periods [34][18]. 3. Individual Bank Performance - The report highlights the varying performance of different banks, with state-owned banks showing lower volatility and stable returns, while regional banks have exhibited higher short-term returns [44]. - Historical data indicates that smaller banks have often led in absolute returns, particularly in recent years [41]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on bank stock allocation, anticipating an increase in overall positions due to the influx of medium to long-term capital and reforms in public funds [7]. - Specific banks recommended for investment include major state-owned banks and strong regional banks with high provisioning coverage [7].