香港交易所：港交所4月跟踪：市场热度维持高位，业绩有望延续高增-20250530

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][43]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from sustained high market activity and liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market, driven by ongoing interconnectivity policies [3][43]. - The company's PE ratio is currently at 30.52x, which is at the 20th percentile of its historical range since 2016, indicating a favorable valuation for investment [5][43]. - Revenue and other income projections for the company are estimated to be HKD 291 billion, HKD 306 billion, and HKD 321 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 173 billion, HKD 182 billion, and HKD 192 billion [5][43]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of April, the Hong Kong stock market has shown significant growth, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 10% and 14% respectively since the end of 2024 [8]. - The average daily trading (ADT) for the Hong Kong stock market was HKD 2,747 billion in April, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 144.7% [5][14]. Business Segments - In the cash market, the trading activity remains high, with the ADT for northbound funds at HKD 9,732 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 20% [5][14]. - The derivatives market saw an increase in futures trading, with an ADV of 84.1 million contracts, up 23.2% year-on-year [5][16]. - The LME daily average trading volume increased by 10.6% month-on-month, reaching 88.0 million contracts in April [20]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenue and other income of HKD 291 billion in 2025, with net profits expected to reach HKD 173 billion [5][43]. - The PE ratios for the projected years are estimated to be 29.2x, 27.7x, and 26.2x for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][43]. Macro Environment - The domestic economic outlook shows a decline in overall economic activity, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.0% in April, indicating a contraction [36]. - Internationally, the Federal Reserve has maintained its interest rates, with expectations for potential rate cuts later in the year, which may influence liquidity in the Hong Kong market [38].