宏观点评20250530：市场进入快速轮动末期，行业风格向稳定板块切换-20250530

Market Trends - The market has entered a rapid rotation phase, with small-cap stocks' trading volume approaching historical highs, indicating increased volatility[1] - The valuation polarization coefficient for primary and secondary industries has remained stable since April 8, suggesting ongoing sector rotation without significant valuation expansion[1] Risk Assessment - The pricing of risk events has largely concluded, with the market having fully priced in the impacts of tariff changes since April 7, leading to a recovery in asset prices[2] - The U.S. International Trade Court's decision on May 28 to block tariff policies indicates that the market's positive expectations regarding tariffs have been largely exhausted[2] Domestic Economic Indicators - Following an unexpected growth in March, April saw a slight decline in various economic indicators, with exports dropping by 8.1% due to tariff disruptions[3] - Despite a weak performance in real estate and non-subsidized consumer goods, the overall economic outlook remains stable, with expectations for limited downward movement in economic activity[3] International Economic Factors - The focus is on whether Trump's tariff policies will continue, as the administration seeks to negotiate agreements before the July deadline, potentially increasing global market uncertainty[4] - Rising U.S. and Japanese bond yields have led to a "triple whammy" effect on U.S. markets, although the correlation between A-shares and U.S. bonds has weakened[4] Capital Flow Insights - Trading volume has become a crucial indicator for short-term market movements, with declining turnover rates reflecting diverging capital flows despite index gains[5] - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with a shift from small-cap to large-cap and stable sectors expected as the market seeks to rebalance[6]