成本支撑预期减弱，合金承压偏弱运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For silicon manganese, the cost support is expected to weaken, and the industrial fundamentals have improved, but due to the overall decline in the prices of the black series, the market bearish sentiment remains. The medium - and short - term market may still be in the process of finding or establishing a bottom, with prices remaining weak. The main contract reference range is [5250, 5800] [3]. - For silicon iron, under the background of industrial production cuts, the supply - demand contradiction has eased. The current supply has dropped to the lowest level in the same period, while the demand faces the risk of seasonal decline, and the cost support is still insufficient. The market may continue to find a bottom, and prices are expected to remain weak. The main contract reference range is [5150, 5500] [45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In May, production and operating rates declined significantly, with factories in both northern and southern regions undergoing maintenance. Some factories have resumed production slightly after maintenance. The daily output in Inner Mongolia is 13,400 tons, still at a relatively high level in the same period. Yunnan factories also have plans to resume production in June. The estimated total national silicon manganese production in May is about 740,000 tons [3]. - Demand: In May, hot metal production declined month - on - month and may have peaked, but it is still at a relatively high level in the same period, providing short - term rigid support for silicon manganese demand. In terms of steel procurement, the mainstream steel mills' procurement price of silicon manganese alloy in May was 5,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to April, and the procurement quantity was 11,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons compared to April. Most steel mills' tender prices decreased, with strong price - pressing sentiment. Recent news of crude steel production restrictions has disturbed the market [3]. Manganese Ore Overview - The news of South Africa's export restrictions briefly disturbed the market, but its impact has gradually dissipated. The manganese ore market remains weak, with low trading volume, and factories mainly replenish stocks on demand. In May, shipping and arrival volumes increased significantly, while the port clearance volume declined from a high level. South32 has resumed shipping, but the overall shipping volume is low. It is expected that port inventories will slowly recover at a low level [3]. Cost and Profit - The entire industry's loss has intensified, and the expectation of production cuts remains. However, the room for further production cuts in the southern region is limited, and attention should be paid to the operating conditions in low - cost regions. The second - round price cut of coke has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts. Electricity prices in both northern and southern regions have decreased to varying degrees, and there is still an expectation of an electricity price cut in Ningxia in June [3]. Market Outlook - Overall, the cost support for silicon manganese is expected to weaken. Although the industrial fundamentals have improved, the market bearish sentiment remains due to the overall decline in the prices of the black series. The medium - and short - term market may still be in the process of finding or establishing a bottom, with prices remaining weak. The upward drive depends on "deep production cuts" in the industry or external environmental disturbances [3]. Silicon Iron Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In May, production and operating rates declined significantly. Since mid - April, more factories in production areas have undergone maintenance, and the operating rates in multiple production areas have dropped to the lowest level in the same period. The estimated total national production in May is 410,000 - 420,000 tons [44]. - Demand: In the short term, steel mills' profits still support the high - level hot metal production, and the demand for silicon iron remains resilient. The progress of steel procurement in May was slow, with most steel mills' tender prices decreasing to varying degrees, and strong price - pressing sentiment. A leading steel mill's procurement price of silicon iron alloy in May was 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared to April, and the procurement quantity was 2,130 tons, an increase of 430 tons compared to April. Non - steel demand: The downstream magnesium metal market remains weak, with low trading volume, and cannot strongly support silicon iron. In terms of exports, the export volume of silicon iron increased month - on - month in April, but the cumulative export volume from January to April decreased significantly compared to the same period last year. Affected by the increase in Southeast Asian orders, the export volume in May is expected to increase slightly month - on - month but still be lower than the level of the same period last year [44]. Cost and Profit - The semi - coke market remains weakly stable. The price of lump coal at the raw material end continues to be weak, and cannot strongly support the semi - coke price. The maintenance season in May is coming to an end, and factories may gradually resume production. The price of small materials in Shaanxi decreased by 40 yuan/ton this month. There is still an expectation of an electricity price cut in Ningxia, and attention should be paid to the electricity price changes in each production area [44]. Market Outlook - Under the background of industrial production cuts, the supply - demand contradiction has eased. The current supply has dropped to the lowest level in the same period, while the demand faces the risk of seasonal decline, and the cost support is still insufficient. The market may continue to find a bottom, and prices are expected to remain weak [45].