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ETF系列报告（一）：全球ETF格局演变与中国市场未来机遇
2025-05-30 14:01

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The global ETF market is steadily expanding. The US market is mature, the Asia - Pacific region is a new growth engine, and the European market leads in ESG - themed investment. Each region has its own characteristics and development trends [7]. - The US ETF market has a rich product matrix, with comprehensive asset and geographical coverage, and continuous product innovation [7]. - The European ETF market is characterized by leading ESG - themed investment, with significant regulatory and innovation advantages [7]. - The Japanese ETF market is deeply involved by the central bank, with a distinct feature of real - estate REITs investment [7]. - The Chinese ETF market is in a historical expansion period, with characteristics of diversified innovation and institutionalized investment, and is moving towards high - quality development [7]. Summary According to the Directory US ETF: Mature Market with a Rich Product Matrix - Theoretical Basis for Passive Index Investment: In an efficient market, it's difficult for active funds to beat passive index investment. The effective market hypothesis and empirical research show that most active - type stock funds can't achieve stable Alpha in the long - term, which promotes the rise of passive index investment. ETFs, with advantages such as low cost, high transparency, and strong liquidity, have become the mainstream tool for passive index investment [12][14][18]. - Market Scale and Growth: The US ETF market shows strong growth resilience, with its scale growth rate consistently higher than that of mutual funds. As of the end of 2023, the ETF scale reached 8.09trillion,andthenumberofETFswas3108.ETFsarebecominganimportantsupplementandalternativetotraditionalmutualfunds[23][24].−∗∗ProductSystem∗∗:TheUSETFproductsystemisperfect,mainlystock−type,withapreferenceforlarge−capstocks.Theassetcoverageisconstantlyexpanding,anddigitalassetssuchasBitcoinETFshavebeeninnovativelydeveloped.Asof2024,thetotalscaleof11approvedspotBitcoinETFshasexceeded8.09 trillion, and the number of ETFs was 3108. ETFs are becoming an important supplement and alternative to traditional mutual funds [23][24]. - **Product System**: The US ETF product system is perfect, mainly stock - type, with a preference for large - cap stocks. The asset coverage is constantly expanding, and digital assets such as Bitcoin ETFs have been innovatively developed. As of 2024, the total scale of 11 approved spot Bitcoin ETFs has exceeded 9 billion [26][28]. - Active - type ETF: Active - type ETFs are growing rapidly, accounting for 6.47% of the overall market scale by the end of 2023. There are three parallel disclosure modes to meet different investment strategies and market demands [30][31]. - Cross - border ETF: US cross - border ETFs are globally distributed, with an investment proportion of 40.29% in emerging markets as of 2024. The investment in the Asia - Pacific region has grown rapidly, exceeding 100billionin2024.KeyinvestmentcountriesincludeJapan,China,andIndia[33][34][37].−∗∗SmartBetaETF∗∗:TherearevarioustypesofUSSmartBetaETFs,whichhavedifferentadvantagesindifferenteconomiccyclesandareofdifferentialallocationvalue[39][40].−∗∗Leveraged/ShortETF∗∗:TheUSleveraged/shortETFsystemisrelativelymature,coveringmultipleassetcategories.Thescaleofleveraged/shortETFsrelatedtocryptocurrenciesandvolatilityhasincreasedsignificantlyin2023−2024,andthetotalmanagementassetsexceeded100 billion in 2024. Key investment countries include Japan, China, and India [33][34][37]. - **SmartBeta ETF**: There are various types of US SmartBeta ETFs, which have different advantages in different economic cycles and are of differential allocation value [39][40]. - **Leveraged/Short ETF**: The US leveraged/short ETF system is relatively mature, covering multiple asset categories. The scale of leveraged/short ETFs related to cryptocurrencies and volatility has increased significantly in 2023 - 2024, and the total management assets exceeded 120 billion in 2024 [42][43]. European ETF: Leading in ESG - themed Development Globally - Market Scale and Development Process: As of the end of 2024, the total management assets of European ETFs reached 2.21trillion.Since2000,theEuropeanETFmarkethasdevelopedsteadily,withthecontinuousimprovementoftheregulatorysystemandacceleratingproductinnovationinrecentyears[47][48].−∗∗ProductStructure∗∗:TheEuropeanETFmarketismainlycomposedofstock−type(2.21 trillion. Since 2000, the European ETF market has developed steadily, with the continuous improvement of the regulatory system and accelerating product innovation in recent years [47][48]. - **Product Structure**: The European ETF market is mainly composed of stock - type (1.62 trillion) and bond - type (410.1billion)ETFs.Italsohasacertainscaleincommodities,currencies,andspecialassetssuchascryptocurrencies[49].−∗∗Industry−ThemedETF∗∗:TheEuropeanindustry−themedETFhasshiftedfromindustryselectiontotheme−strategyorientation,goingthroughthreedevelopmentstages,andtheproportionoftheme−typeETFshasbeenincreasinginrecentyears[51][52].−∗∗SmartBetaETF∗∗:EuropeanSmartBetaETFsaremainlyESG−themed.TheregulatoryenvironmentattachesgreatimportancetoESG,whichpromotestheintegrationofESGconceptsintothedesignofSmartBetaETFs[53][54][55].JapaneseETF:Central−Bank−DominatedandMarket−Supplementary−∗∗MarketScaleandDevelopment∗∗:Asoftheendof2024,thetotalmanagementassetsofJapaneseETFsreached410.1 billion) ETFs. It also has a certain scale in commodities, currencies, and special assets such as cryptocurrencies [49]. - **Industry - Themed ETF**: The European industry - themed ETF has shifted from industry selection to theme - strategy orientation, going through three development stages, and the proportion of theme - type ETFs has been increasing in recent years [51][52]. - **SmartBeta ETF**: European SmartBeta ETFs are mainly ESG - themed. The regulatory environment attaches great importance to ESG, which promotes the integration of ESG concepts into the design of SmartBeta ETFs [53][54][55]. Japanese ETF: Central - Bank - Dominated and Market - Supplementary - **Market Scale and Development**: As of the end of 2024, the total management assets of Japanese ETFs reached 588.659 billion, with mixed - stock - type ETFs accounting for 97.63%. The market has been growing steadily, and the product system has been diversifying in recent years [57][58]. - Industry - Themed Investment: Japanese industry - themed ETFs are highly concentrated in REITs and the financial sector. The REITs ETF system is well - developed, and the REIT index yield is much higher than that of government bonds [59][60][61]. - Role of the Central Bank: Since 2010, the Japanese central bank has included ETF purchases in its quantitative easing policy. It has played an important role in stabilizing the market and boosting confidence. As of the end of 2024, the central bank holds about 37 trillion yen of ETF assets [62][63][64]. Chinese ETF Market Future Trend Outlook - Current Market Situation: As of April 18, 2025, the total scale of Chinese ETFs has reached 4.02 trillion yuan, showing a rapid growth trend since 2018. Stock - type ETFs are dominant, followed by cross - border and bond - type ETFs. Institutional investors are the main force in the market, preferring broad - based ETFs. Chinese ETFs have a significant fee advantage [68][69][79]. - Stock - type ETF Structure: In stock - type ETFs, broad - based index ETFs have the highest scale, and theme - type ETFs are increasing rapidly. In terms of industry investment, the financial sector has the highest proportion, and in terms of theme investment, it focuses on technology hotspots [71][72][75]. - Strategy and Style Index ETFs: In strategy index ETFs, the dividend strategy dominates, and in style index ETFs, the growth style leads [76]. - Future Trends: - SmartBeta ETF: There is still much room for growth in Chinese SmartBeta ETFs. Currently, the dividend strategy dominates, and in the future, innovation is expected in directions such as low - volatility, quality, and ESG integration [83]. - Index - Enhanced ETF: Index - enhanced ETFs are becoming an important form of active - type ETFs in China. As of April 18, 2025, 34 index - enhanced ETFs have been issued, covering 12 broad - based indexes, and most of them have achieved positive excess returns relative to their benchmarks [84][85]. - Cross - border ETF: Chinese cross - border ETFs are mainly invested in the Hong Kong and US markets. In the future, the investment scope is expected to expand continuously to meet investors' demand for overseas asset allocation [86][87][88]. - Central Huijin's ETF Purchase: Since 2023, Central Huijin has significantly increased its ETF holdings, playing a role in stabilizing the market. In the future, its strategy may shift from short - term volatility support to long - term balanced allocation [90][91].