CIT裁定关税闹剧收场，情绪过后市场回归原有路径

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The CIT ruling on tariffs was just a short - term emotional disturbance. After the CAFC's decision, most commodities erased the previous day's rebound. Tariffs will likely continue as long as Trump is in power. The trading strategy should focus on the fundamental logic to find the strength and weakness of varieties. For the energy - chemical sector, crude oil, three types of rubber, and polyolefins have clear downward fundamental logic [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Overall Market Situation - The CIT ruling on tariffs was a short - term emotional boost, but the CAFC's decision restored the tariffs, and most commodities erased the previous day's rebound. The trading should focus on the fundamentals [3][4]. Commodity Analysis Crude Oil - Logic: OPEC+ finalized the 2027 production benchmark, and the production increase plan will be discussed on Saturday. Kazakhstan can't reduce oil production. There's a high possibility of a new Iran nuclear deal [5]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期下跌结构 and hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price hit a new low, and the short - term pressure is at 468. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 468 [5]. Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Logic: Low inventory, but the supply is expected to increase due to the early resumption of maintenance devices. The cost support is weak, and the demand is hard to improve [8]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price followed the decline of crude oil. The short - term pressure is at 7343. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 7343 [8]. PX - Logic: The PX devices are in maintenance, and the downstream PTA's operation rate has increased. However, the cost logic may dominate the market after the decline of crude oil [12]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level短期震荡 structure. The price fell after reducing positions, and the previous upward breakthrough was false. The strategy is to wait and see [12]. PTA - Logic: The supply may increase, but there are concentrated maintenance plans in the second quarter. The demand is relatively strong, but the cost logic may dominate after the decline of crude oil [16]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level短期震荡 structure. The price fell after reducing positions, and the previous upward breakthrough was false. The strategy is to wait and see [16]. PP - Logic: The supply is stable, but there are new production capacity expectations in June. The domestic demand is in the off - season, and the export is hard to increase [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price was volatile and ended lower. The short - term pressure is at 6980. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 6980 [20]. Methanol - Logic: The domestic operation rate decreased slightly, but the overseas operation rate increased. There are high import expectations in June, and the demand is flat [25]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level下跌结构. The price was volatile and continued to decline. The short - term pressure is at 2255. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 2255 [25]. Rubber - Logic: The demand is weak with high inventory of automobiles and tires. The EU launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires. The domestic inventory is accumulating, and the supply will increase in June [26]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期下跌 and hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price hit a new low, and the short - term pressure is at 14000. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound fails [26]. PVC - Logic: The real - estate data in April was poor, and the terminal demand is hard to improve. The supply will increase after the resumption of device maintenance [29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期下跌 and hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price was volatile and continued to decline. The short - term pressure is at 4980. Look for short - selling opportunities after the reversal pattern [29]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The overall supply operation rate decreased slightly, and the arrival of goods increased. The polyester load remains high [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期下跌 and hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price was volatile, and the short - term pressure is at 4405. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 4405 [33]. Plastic - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期下跌 and hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price hit a new low, and the short - term pressure is at 7120. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 7120 [37]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The supply of butadiene will increase in June, which will put pressure on synthetic rubber from the cost side. The demand is weak [41]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期下跌 and hourly - level短期下跌 structure. The price hit a new low, and the short - term pressure is at 11580. The hourly - cycle short position should be held, with a stop - profit reference of 11580 [41].