钢材月报：需求或超预期回落，钢材维持下行趋势-20250530

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the steel market fluctuated little in the first half - month and declined continuously in the second half, breaking the previous low. Macroeconomic policies have limited impact on the black - series commodities, and the overall demand intensity is lower than expected. Although steel mills' profits are in a good state, the balance of steel supply and demand is fragile. There is a possibility of a seasonal decline in demand, and the raw material cost may decrease. The downward trend of the steel industry has not ended, but if there are corresponding production - limiting measures for coking coal, it may help form a phased bottom. Also, the steel basis is likely to weaken in June, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - After the Spring Festival, the resumption of construction at construction sites was slow, steel exports faced tariff barriers, and the decline of coking coal drove down the price of steel. During the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, affected by the trade war, the overall commodity market declined significantly. Currently, the steel market shows characteristics of low - level range fluctuations [8]. 3.2 Currency and Social Financing - The growth rates of M1 and M2 generally showed a rising trend, and the M1 - M2 gap slightly narrowed in April. In April, RMB loans decreased significantly to less than 10 billion, and the year - on - year difference between social financing and M2 declined [11]. 3.3 Price Index - In April, CPI was - 0.1 with a flat month - on - month change, and PPI was - 2.7, a further decline of 0.2 compared to March. The manufacturing PMI in April was 49, below the boom - bust line [14]. 3.4 Steel Production - In April, the crude steel output was 86.01 million tons, similar to the same period last year. From January to April, the cumulative output was 345 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The pig iron output was 289 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The weekly output of the five major steel products was 8.81 million tons, and the cumulative output since this year decreased by 2.2% year - on - year. The cumulative pig iron output increased by 3.9% year - on - year, and although the current pig iron output has declined compared to the previous period, it is still at an absolute high level [17]. 3.5 Blast Furnace Production No specific content provided. 3.6 Building Material Production - The production of rebar has been stable recently, maintaining at around 2.3 million tons. The cumulative rebar output decreased by 5% year - on - year, and the decline has gradually narrowed [22]. 3.7 Rebar Production Profit - The long - process rebar profit in East and Central China is around 160 yuan/ton, and in North China it is around 200 yuan/ton. The long - process spot immediate profit has been good this year, ensuring the production enthusiasm of steel mills [25]. 3.8 Short - Process Production - The short - process production is generally low. Currently, the profit during off - peak electricity hours is basically at the break - even point, and there are overall losses during peak electricity hours [28]. 3.9 Electric Furnace Profit No specific content provided. 3.10 Coil Production - The hot - rolled coil output declined after April and is still lower than the same period last year. The output of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled coils is the highest in the same period. The cumulative output of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly year - on - year, while the output of cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates increased slightly [33]. 3.11 Hot - Rolled Coil Production Profit - The profit of hot - rolled coils in East China is around 200 yuan/ton, in North China it is around 100 yuan/ton, and in Central China it is around the break - even point. The overall profit of coils is slightly lower than that of rebar [36]. 3.12 Steel Demand - With the decline in price and the arrival of the off - season, the trading volume of construction steel has further decreased to around 100,000 tons, and the spot sentiment has continued to decline [39]. 3.13 Building Material Consumption - In May, the consumption of building materials generally declined, lower than the same period last year. The cumulative apparent consumption of rebar decreased by 5% year - on - year, and that of wire rods decreased by 10% year - on - year. As the demand enters the off - season, attention should be paid to the decline rate [42]. 3.14 Real Estate Data - In April, the newly - started area of real estate decreased by 22% compared to March, and the decline deepened. From January to April, the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 24.1%. From January to April, the land purchase cost decreased by 5.9%, and the construction area decreased by 9.7%, both showing a continuous weakening trend. In the future, it is difficult for the real estate construction demand to improve significantly [44]. 3.15 Real Estate High - Frequency Data - The cumulative year - on - year decrease in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities was 2%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 1.9% [47]. 3.16 Cement and Concrete - In May, the outbound shipment volume of cement and concrete was relatively balanced but lower than the same period last year [50]. 3.17 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to April, fixed - asset investment increased by 4% year - on - year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.2% compared to the period from January to March. Infrastructure investment increased by 10.85%, and the growth rate decreased by 0.65%. Manufacturing investment showed a slight weakening trend [53]. 3.18 Local Government Bonds - From January to April, the national issuance of new local government bonds was 1.49 trillion yuan, including 302.3 billion yuan of general bonds and 1.19 trillion yuan of special bonds. The issuance speed decreased in April. More than 80% of the 2 - trillion - yuan refinancing special bond resources have been implemented this year, and the peak issuance period has passed. Subsequently, the issuance of local government bonds will mainly be new bonds [56]. 3.19 Coil Consumption - The demand for coils remains strong, at a relatively high level in the same period. The cumulative apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils increased by 1% year - on - year, that of cold - rolled coils increased by 0.9%, and that of medium - thick plates increased by 2.7% [58]. 3.20 Automobiles and Home Appliances - From January to April, automobile sales were 10.06 million, a year - on - year increase of 10.8%, including 2.16 million exports, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. From January to April, the output of air conditioners increased by 7.2% year - on - year, refrigerators decreased by 0.7%, and washing machines increased by 10.9%. Home appliance exports still maintained positive growth [62]. 3.21 Steel Exports - Steel exports remained at a high level. From January to April, the export volume was 37.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. There was a certain "rush - to - export" factor in the early stage, and the export volume may decline later. Since this year, the export of steel billets has increased significantly, with a cumulative export of 3.34 million tons from January to April, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons [65]. 3.22 Steel Inventory - Currently, steel inventory is still in the destocking stage, and the destocking is usually basically completed by the end of June [67]. 3.23 Rebar Inventory - Rebar inventory is seasonally destocking. Although the absolute level is low, the inventory - to - consumption ratio is basically normal. According to simple seasonal projections, the inventory will continue to decline [70]. 3.24 Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory - The destocking of hot - rolled coil inventory is relatively fast, and it has now dropped to a low level in the same period. According to seasonal projections, the inventory will continue to decline, but due to the possible weakening of exports, the demand may face a more - than - seasonal decline [73]. 3.25 Inventory of Other Varieties - The inventory of wire rods is similar to that of rebar, with a relatively low absolute level. The destocking of medium - thick plate inventory is going smoothly, while the cold - rolled coil inventory shows counter - seasonal accumulation [78]. 3.26 Rebar Basis - The rebar basis remained high in May with little change. Futures prices fell faster, while spot prices were somewhat resistant due to low inventory. According to past rules, it is highly likely that the basis will decline after June. Currently, the basis is at a relatively high level in the same period, with limited upward space. Attention should be paid to the possibility of basis weakening caused by demand decline [82]. 3.27 Hot - Rolled Coil Basis - The hot - rolled coil basis strengthened in May. The good destocking of spot inventory, strong domestic demand, and high export volume supported the relatively strong operation of the spot market. Later, attention should be paid to the possible decline in exports, which may put downward pressure on the hot - rolled coil basis [86]. 3.28 Rebar Monthly Spread - The spread between the October and January contracts of rebar was low and fluctuated little [91]. 3.29 Hot - Rolled Coil Monthly Spread - The hot - rolled coil monthly spread strengthened in May. After approaching the flat - water level, there was a lack of further upward momentum [95]. 3.30 Coil - Rebar Spread No specific content provided. 3.31 Spot Regional Spread No specific content provided. 3.32 Spot Variety Spread No specific content provided.